From: "Steve Wrathell" Subject: CPA Rkgs/CPA Retrodiction Rkgs-NCAA, Preseason Page Date: Thu, 21 Aug 2003 05:30:22 +0000 CPA RANKINGS - NCAA FOOTBALL (TM) CPA RETRODICTION RANKINGS - NCAA FOOTBALL (TM) (c) 2003, Steven Wrathell CPA PC 2003 PRESEASON PAGE, with conference predictions, I-A & I-AA Computer football Power rankings designed for Accuracy (TM) For these systems' descriptions & links to other CPA Rankings pages (NCAA & NFL) & other links, such as D Wilson's RSFC, K Massey's Comparison, and preseason sites including C Stassen's preseason pages, go to: http://www.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/rate/wrathell.html + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Remember the victims of 9/11/2001. |********=============== |********=============== This web site supports the U.S.A. no matter |********=============== what the French, Germans, and Russians say. |********=============== |======================= |======================= GOD BLESS AMERICA! |======================= + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Subjective opinion polls are designed for fans who have opinions. Objective computer rankings are designed for fans who also passed math. + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + CPA Rankings has won numerous Prediction Tracker Awards for both its NCAA and NFL ratings, in both predictive and in retrodictive categories. It is the #1 predictor of NCAA I-A conference standings, as calculated by Chris Stassen for the 3-year period for 2000, 2001, and 2002. CPA Retrodiction has been one of the best systems for ranking violation percentage on Kenneth Massey's CF Comparison and finished the 2002 season as the first system to be #1 in both I-A and I-AA for RV% as calculated for all I-A teams and for all I-AA teams. As the CPA Rankings/CPA Retrodiction Rankings preseason I-A conference predictions have performed well on Chris Stassen's web site, I wish to make a clarification regarding misleading information in Phil Steele's 2003 magazine, at pages 302 & 303. The article, written by Arne Lang, refers to "The Most Accurate Preseason Magazine The Last 4 Years!" Note that this "conveniently" excludes WEB SITES and that Stassen's site lists both magazines AND WEB SITES. INFO FROM CHRIS STASSEN'S SITE: http://www.preseason.stassen.com 3-YEAR TOTALS (PARTIAL) Magazine OR WEB SITE Rank Total CPA RANKINGS ------- 1 420 Lindy's ------------ 2 429 Phil Steele -------- 3 431 CPA Rankings was #1 for 2000 and Phil Steele was #1 for 2001. My NFL preseason info will be on my current NFL page about one week before the regular season begins, since I do consider player performances, etc. during the exhibition games. WHAT'S NEW FOR 2003 (& LATER): This is an early rundown and further updates and/or corrections could be posted on the final preseason page. There is a new I-AA All-Star game, debuting 12/30/2003. Most of the I-AA conferences will participate in it. I-A CONFERENCE CHANGES, ETC.: At the time of my writing of my preliminary preseason page, the biggest news regarding the conferences was the ACC's raid on the Big East. Now, the bigger story may be the non-BCS teams' challange to the BCS system. There may be Congressional hearings on this matter. At issue, of course, is MONEY -- lots of it. With conference sharing, it doesn't matter that Boise State could clobber Duke: Duke gets a piece of the BCS pie as a member of the ACC, while Boise shares its small non-BCS bowl pie with its WAC collegues. Is this fair? The fact is that even the 1998 Tulane and 1999 Marshall teams were not truly in the top 8, but who could say they beat them? The BCS can correctly argue that their system does not wrongly exclude non-BCS'ers from the 8 BCS spots. But if the BCS were expanded to 6 or 8 bowls, then the top teams of the other conferences could be accomidated (which is what I recommend). Even without expanding the BCS bowls, the non-BCS'ers would be happy if there was I-A-wide sharing of bowl money (so 12-1 Boise State would not make less than 2-10 Duke). Proposals for 16-team playoffs may be made to replace the 8-team BCS bowls, but a 16-team Bowl plan would involve the same teams. Also among the anti-trust considerations are the bowl-conference ties: is it fair that a BCS conference's seventh best team has a bowl lined up when a non-BCS team may wind up without a bowl? Ask 2002's South Florida or the MAC runner-ups for several recent years. I believe if there are 28 bowls, that the best 56 teams should be in there, based on the win minimum and the BCS standings (which do need improvement and do need to be made public for ALL I-A teams, not just a top 15. Getting back the the ACC-Big East war, the ACC sought Miami FL, Boston College, and Syracuse. Syracuse, as the NCAA basketball champ would have added to the ACC's basketball prestige. But due to the lawsuits and threats of suits (including opposition from ACC member Virginia and the Virginia Attorney General), the ACC proposal was modified to add Virginia Tech, and later, the bids for Boston College and Syracuse were dropped. Va Tech and Miami agreed to be in the ACC, beginning in 2004. Will there still be any lawsuits? Will the Big East and the ACC attempt to raid CUSA? I don't know how locked into the MAC Marshall is, but as a good football school in West Virginia, it would make a good candidate for either the Big East or the ACC. Notre Dame is in the Big East for basketball and might join it for football, go to the Big Ten (which it has always rejected) or it could remain independent for football. For 2005, the Big East was planning on eliminating Temple and bringing in Connecticut. Temple could be able to win its fight to stay put. To sum up where this will go, the Big East will definitely want to add teams, preferably top quality ones. In 1998, the "Big East rule" was adopted by the BCS that allows the BCS to drop a conference that does not produce at least one team with an adequate rank in the BCS standings. On the other hand, the ACC wants a conference championship game, which is currently allowed where a minimum of 12 teams exist in a conference. The Big Eleven, I mean the Big Ten, does not want such a game for themselves, and this may influence the NCAA to not accept the ACC plan to reduce the minimum to 11. Will the Big East vote for the ACC plan? The bad blood between them demands a NO vote. But, a YES vote might keep the ACC from pursuing another Big East team or from going after teams that the Big East might want to add. Marshall, Central Florida, and South Florida are top teams that either the ACC or the Big East may want. The SEC could be raided, too. South Florida joins CUSA for 2003. As an independent in 2002, USF was shut out of the bowls, despite beating bowl teams and being rated #27 & # 28 in my 2 systems. Most of the 56 bowl openings are tied up by conferences and Notre Dame is the only independent with the clout to have bowl ties. Utah State will join the Sun Belt Conference in 2003 and Troy State will join it for football in 2004 and for other sports in 2005. Both teams were independent for football. Note the last paragraph in the I-AA section about schools dropping football. In I-A, there was a threat of this. The Board of Trustees considered dropping football at Tulane (a CUSA team that was undefeated in 1998 and won its 2002 bowl game). On 6/10/2003, the Board voted to keep Tulane's football program alive and in I-A, but it also adopted a plan to decrease annual athletic department deficits from $7 million to $2 million per year. Had football been dropped, I think Tulane would have faced lawsuits from the teams on its 2003 schedule and, of course, from its players. Also note that if a school drops a major men's sport, such as football, to keep things "equal," for Title XI, a school's womens' sports would also face equivalent cuts. I discovered the Tulane football crisis not thru the major sports media, but thru the e-zine, "I-AA_TODAY," by the CFAA, (which has both I-AA and I-A news, from newspaper clips). If you want this to be e-mailed to you for free, go to http://i-aa.com/ . Articles on the Tulane story were also at http://www.nola.com . Note also that http://i-aa.org/ (note the .org vs. .com distinction) also has a great deal of I-AA information, including official news, and it publishes I-AA.org Magazine. Army will leave CUSA to become an independent in 2004, which bucks the trend of independents seeking conference affiliations. Army says it wants more scheduling flexibility. After its bad season in 2002, this probably means it wants to be able to weaken its schedule considerably. I-AA MOVE TO I-A FOR 2004: Florida A&M will be moving from I-AA to I-A in 2004. It will be the first historicly black university in I-A. Those universities are generally in Divisions I-AA and II. FA&M was ruled ineligible for the 2003 playoffs, so its conference (Mid-Eastern Athletic) decided to make FA&M ineligible for the conference championship and exclude its games from the standings. There has also been a controversy about 2003 transfers to FA&M. Under NCAA rules, if a I-A player wishes to transfer to another I-A school, he must sit out one year. There are similar rules for I-AA, but there are exceptions. One exception allows a I-A player to transfer to a I-AA school: NO SITTING OUT IS REQUIRED. Some players went from I-A teams to I-AA Florida A&M. They can play in 2003, right? FA&M will not be a "true" I-A team until 2004 and, in 2003, they play a I-AA schedule (with only one I-A and one II team on the agenda). The problem is that FA&M is in a transitional status. They were told that I-A transfers would be permitted to play in 2003 if the moves were made by 6/30/2003, which they did. Then the NCAA changed its mind and FA&M appealed. Can the NCAA follow the example of Congress which passes ex post facto tax laws and laughs at the Constitution (but not as often as the Supreme Court laughs at it)? The NCAA ruling on the appeal was made against allowing the players to play with FA&M in 2003. I-AA CONFERENCE CHANGES, ETC.: In I-AA, new members include Cal-Davis and Northern Colorado, 2 of the top Division II teams, and 2 teams that did not play football last year. Coastal Carolina is playing its first season ever and it joins the Big South. SE Louisiana resurrects its program after 18 years. It will play an independent schedule which includes some games with Southland Conference teams, where it will later become a member. As they are in the first of 4 transition years, Cal-Davis and N Colorado can't participate in the playoffs of either Divisions I-AA or II. A member of N Colorado's D-II conference, North Dakota State might be going into I-AA transition in 2004 and others in that conference are also considering a divisional change. Also joining the Big South is VMI, which leaves the Southern Conference. VMI is "trading" spots with Elon which joins the Southern Conference and leaves the Big South. The Ohio Valley Conference receives 2 new teams: Jacksonville St. (AL), from the Southland, and Samford, which was independent. For 2004, Towson will leave the Patriot Conference for the Atlantic 10 (a conference, which like the Big 10, is unfamiliar with the actual meaning of the word "ten"). St. John's drops its football team and some other athletic programs due to budget cuts. It played in the Metro Atlantic in 2002, but was previously in the Northeast Conference. More teams then fell to the budget ax. Two more Metro Atlantic schools dropped football: Canisius and Fairfield. I-AA independent Morris Brown has dropped football and I discovered, at their site, that they are battling to keep the school alive in a fight over their accreditation. Of those schools, only Fairfield had a good record, but it is a "Mid-Major" (non-scholarship) school. The most surprising school to announce dropping football (but not until after this season) is E. Tennessee State. ETSU is in the Southern Conference, which is one of the top I-AA conferences. I wish to thank the College Sporting News ( http://wwwCollegeSportingNews.com ), which maintains the GPI (I-AA), for clarifications regarding the transitional status of Cal-Davis, N Colorado, and N Dakota St and for information on the teams dropping football. Southwest Texas State U. has changed its name to Texas State University - San Marcos and will be listed on my site as "texas st -s m (sw tx)." + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + The preseason rankings and ratings are the same for both CPA Rankings and CPA Retrodiction. The team-specific Home Field Advantage (HFA) factors do differ between the systems. See them on my current NCAA page. Conference predictions follow the 1-117 list. Division I-A 1-117 240 I-A Rank Rank --------Team-------- Rating 1 1 Oklahoma ............ 100.00 2 2 Miami FL ............ 99.00 3 3 Texas ............... 98.00 4 4 Ohio St ............. 97.00 5 5 Kansas St ........... 96.00 6 6 Michigan ............ 95.00 7 7 U S C/Southern Cal... 94.30 8 8 LSU / Louisiana St .. 91.40 9 9 Georgia ............. 91.30 10 10 Florida St .......... 89.50 11 11 Auburn - AL ......... 89.40 12 12 Washington .......... 89.20 13 13 Pittsburgh - PA ..... 88.40 14 14 Virginia Tech ....... 88.00 15 15 Tennessee ........... 87.70 16 16 N Carolina St ....... 87.60 17 17 Maryland ............ 87.50 18 18 Virginia ............ 87.40 19 19 Notre Dame - IN ..... 87.30 20 20 Florida ............. 85.80 21 21 Arkansas ............ 85.70 22 22 Wisconsin ........... 85.50 23 23 Nebraska ............ 85.10 24 24 Purdue - IN ......... 85.00 25 25 Penn St ............. 84.90 26 26 Colorado ............ 84.30 27 27 Oregon St ........... 84.20 28 28 Alabama ............. 84.00 29 29 Oklahoma St ......... 83.90 30 30 U C L A - CA ........ 83.80 31 31 Arizona St .......... 83.70 32 32 Iowa ................ 83.50 33 33 Illinois ............ 83.40 34 34 Colorado St ......... 82.90 35 35 Boston College - MA . 82.60 36 36 Texas Tech .......... 82.50 37 37 Oregon .............. 82.40 38 38 Minnesota ........... 82.20 39 39 Washington St ....... 81.90 40 40 Texas A&M ........... 81.80 41 41 Mississippi ......... 81.40 42 42 Texas Christian/TCU.. 81.30 43 43 Fresno St - CA ...... 81.20 44 44 Boise St - ID ....... 81.00 45 45 Georgia Tech ........ 80.60 46 46 W Virginia .......... 80.50 47 47 Clemson - SC ........ 79.80 48 48 Missouri ............ 79.60 50 49 N Illinois .......... 79.30 51 50 Iowa St ............. 78.80 52 51 Hawaii .............. 78.00 53 52 N Carolina .......... 77.90 54 53 Wake Forest - NC .... 77.70 55 54 New Mexico .......... 77.50 56 55 Southern Miss ....... 77.30 57 56 Syracuse - NY ....... 77.20 58 57 C Florida/UCF ....... 76.80 60 58 S Carolina .......... 76.50 61 59 Toledo - OH ......... 76.40 62 60 Brigham Young - UT .. 75.80 63 61 Air Force - CO ...... 75.10 64 62 Miami OH ............ 74.30 65 63 S Florida/USF ....... 74.20 67 64 Cincinnati - OH ..... 73.70 68 65 Marshall - WV ....... 73.30 69 66 Stanford - CA ....... 73.00 70 67 North Texas ......... 72.80 71 68 California .......... 72.70 72 69 Connecticut ......... 72.00 73 70 Bowling Green - OH .. 71.80 74 71 Utah ................ 71.70 75 72 Michigan St ......... 71.00 76 73 Kentucky ............ 70.90 77 74 Northwestern - IL ... 70.60 78 75 Louisville - KY ..... 70.30 79 76 Tulane - LA ......... 70.20 80 77 Arizona ............. 69.80 81 78 W Michigan .......... 69.60 82 79 Duke - NC ........... 69.50 83 80 Indiana ............. 68.80 84 81 Temple - PA ......... 68.70 85 82 Mississippi St ...... 68.60 87 83 M Tennessee St ...... 68.20 88 84 E Carolina - NC ..... 68.00 89 85 New Mexico St ....... 67.50 90 86 Alabama-Birm/UAB .... 67.40 92 87 U N L V - NV ........ 67.20 93 88 San Diego St - CA ... 67.10 95 89 Vanderbilt - TN ..... 66.80 96 90 Ball St - IN ........ 66.60 97 91 Memphis - TN ........ 66.40 98 92 Akron - OH .......... 65.40 99 93 San Jose St - CA .... 65.30 100 94 Kansas .............. 64.80 101 95 Troy St - AL ........ 64.50 102 96 Louisiana Tech ...... 64.30 103 97 Nevada .............. 63.10 104 98 Wyoming ............. 63.00 105 99 Baylor - TX ......... 62.80 106 100 Houston - TX ........ 62.50 107 101 Navy - MD ........... 62.40 109 102 Rice - TX ........... 62.00 110 103 Rutgers - NJ ........ 61.80 112 104 Arkansas St ......... 61.60 114 105 C Michigan .......... 61.30 118 106 S M U - TX .......... 60.50 119 107 LA Lafayette(SW LA) . 60.10 126 108 Utah St ............. 59.00 128 109 LA Monroe (NE LA) ... 58.80 151 110 Ohio ................ 54.30 152 111 Idaho ............... 54.20 156 112 Kent St - OH ........ 52.80 163 113 E Michigan .......... 51.10 166 114 Texas El Paso/UTEP... 50.20 167 115 Tulsa - OK .......... 50.10 168 116 Buffalo - NY ........ 50.00 169 117 Army - NY ........... 49.10 CONFERENCE PREDICTIONS Conf 1-117 t = tie in conf. standings I'm predicting some ties in some conference races: B10, CUSA, Pac10, SunB, & WAC. ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE 1 10 Florida St .......... 89.50 2 16 N Carolina St ....... 87.60 3 17 Maryland ............ 87.50 4 18 Virginia ............ 87.40 5 45 Georgia Tech ........ 80.60 6 47 Clemson - SC ........ 79.80 7 52 N Carolina .......... 77.90 8 53 Wake Forest - NC .... 77.70 9 79 Duke - NC ........... 69.50 BIG 10 1 4 Ohio St ............. 97.00 2 6 Michigan ............ 95.00 3 22 Wisconsin ........... 85.50 4 24 Purdue - IN ......... 85.00 5 25 Penn St ............. 84.90 6 32 Iowa ................ 83.50 7 33 Illinois ............ 83.40 8 38 Minnesota ........... 82.20 9-10t 72 Michigan St ......... 71.00 9-10t 74 Northwestern - IL ... 70.60 11 80 Indiana ............. 68.80 BIG 12 playoff champ: Oklahoma BIG 12 - NORTH 1 5 Kansas St ........... 96.00 2 23 Nebraska ............ 85.10 3 26 Colorado ............ 84.30 4 48 Missouri ............ 79.60 5 50 Iowa St ............. 78.80 6 94 Kansas .............. 64.80 BIG 12 - SOUTH 1 1 Oklahoma ............ 100.00 2 3 Texas ............... 98.00 3 29 Oklahoma St ......... 83.90 4 36 Texas Tech .......... 82.50 5 40 Texas A&M ........... 81.80 6 99 Baylor - TX ......... 62.80 BIG EAST 1 2 Miami FL ............ 99.00 2 13 Pittsburgh - PA ..... 88.40 3 14 Virginia Tech ....... 88.00 4 35 Boston College - MA . 82.60 5 46 W Virginia .......... 80.50 6 56 Syracuse - NY ....... 77.20 7 81 Temple - PA ......... 68.70 8 103 Rutgers - NJ ........ 61.80 CONFERENCE U S A 1 42 Texas Christian/TCU.. 81.30 2 55 Southern Miss ....... 77.30 3 63 S Florida/USF ....... 74.20 4 64 Cincinnati - OH ..... 73.70 5 75 Louisville - KY ..... 70.30 6 76 Tulane - LA ......... 70.20 7-9t 84 E Carolina - NC ..... 68.00 7-9t 86 Alabama-Birm/UAB .... 67.40 7-9t 91 Memphis - TN ........ 66.40 10 100 Houston - TX ........ 62.50 11 117 Army - NY ........... 49.10 INDEPENDENTS: I-A The order is for strength only. 1 19 Notre Dame - IN ..... 87.30 2 69 Connecticut ......... 72.00 3 95 Troy St - AL ........ 64.50 4 101 Navy - MD ........... 62.40 M A C playoff champ: N Illinois MID-AMERICA CONFERENCE - EAST 1 57 C Florida/UCF ....... 76.80 2 62 Miami OH ............ 74.30 3 65 Marshall - WV ....... 73.30 4 92 Akron - OH .......... 65.40 5 110 Ohio ................ 54.30 6 112 Kent St - OH ........ 52.80 7 116 Buffalo - NY ........ 50.00 MID-AMERICA CONFERENCE - WEST 1 49 N Illinois .......... 79.30 2 59 Toledo - OH ......... 76.40 3 70 Bowling Green - OH .. 71.80 4 78 W Michigan .......... 69.60 5 90 Ball St - IN ........ 66.60 6 105 C Michigan .......... 61.30 7 113 E Michigan .......... 51.10 MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE 1 34 Colorado St ......... 82.90 2 54 New Mexico .......... 77.50 3 60 Brigham Young - UT .. 75.80 4 61 Air Force - CO ...... 75.10 5 71 Utah ................ 71.70 6 87 U N L V - NV ........ 67.20 7 88 San Diego St - CA ... 67.10 8 98 Wyoming ............. 63.00 PAC-10 CONFERENCE 1 7 U S C/Southern Cal... 94.30 2 12 Washington .......... 89.20 3-4t 27 Oregon St ........... 84.20 3-4t 30 U C L A - CA ........ 83.80 5 31 Arizona St .......... 83.70 6 37 Oregon .............. 82.40 7 39 Washington St ....... 81.90 8-9t 66 Stanford - CA ....... 73.00 8-9t 68 California .......... 72.70 10 77 Arizona ............. 69.80 S E C playoff champ: LSU SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE - EAST 1 9 Georgia ............. 91.30 2 15 Tennessee ........... 87.70 3 20 Florida ............. 85.80 4 58 S Carolina .......... 76.50 5 73 Kentucky ............ 70.90 6 89 Vanderbilt - TN ..... 66.80 SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE - WEST 1 8 LSU / Louisiana St .. 91.40 2 11 Auburn - AL ......... 89.40 3 21 Arkansas ............ 85.70 4 28 Alabama ............. 84.00 5 41 Mississippi ......... 81.40 6 82 Mississippi St ...... 68.60 SUN BELT CONFERENCE 1 67 North Texas ......... 72.80 2 83 M Tennessee St ...... 68.20 3 85 New Mexico St ....... 67.50 4-6t 104 Arkansas St ......... 61.60 4-6t 107 LA Lafayette(SW LA) . 60.10 4-6t 108 Utah St ............. 59.00 7-8t 109 LA Monroe (NE LA) ... 58.80 7-8t 111 Idaho ............... 54.20 WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE 1 43 Fresno St - CA ...... 81.20 2 44 Boise St - ID ....... 81.00 3 51 Hawaii .............. 78.00 4 93 San Jose St - CA .... 65.30 5-6t 96 Louisiana Tech ...... 64.30 5-6t 97 Nevada .............. 63.10 7 102 Rice - TX ........... 62.00 8 106 S M U - TX .......... 60.50 9-10t 114 Texas El Paso/UTEP... 50.20 9-10t 115 Tulsa - OK .......... 50.10 Conference predictions follow the 1-123 list. Division I-AA 1-123 Florida A&M, in transition to I-A is listed here. Cal-Davis & N Colorado in transition from II are listed here. 240 I-AA Rank Rank --------Team-------- Rating 49 1 montana ------------- 79.40 59 2 mcneese st - la ----- 76.70 66 3 georgia southern ---- 73.90 86 4 w illinois ---------- 68.50 91 5 delaware ------------ 67.30 94 6 furman - sc --------- 67.00 108 7 massachusetts ------- 62.10 111 8 fordham - ny -------- 61.70 113 9 pennsylvania -------- 61.40 115 10 cal davis ----------- 61.20 116 11 appalachian st - nc - 61.00 117 12 northeastern - ma --- 60.70 120 13 idaho st ------------ 60.00 121 14 w kentucky ---------- 59.80 122 15 n colorado ---------- 59.70 123 16 maine --------------- 59.30 124 17 villanova - pa ------ 59.20 125 18 montana st ---------- 59.10 127 19 wofford - sc -------- 58.90 129 20 s f austin - tx ----- 58.70 130 21 youngstown st - oh -- 58.60 131 22 colgate - ny -------- 57.40 132 23 e kentucky ---------- 57.20 133 24 n arizona ----------- 57.10 134 25 e illinois ---------- 57.00 135 26 lehigh - pa --------- 56.80 136 27 william & mary - va - 56.70 137 28 illinois st --------- 56.60 138 29 hofstra - ny -------- 56.50 139 30 e washington -------- 56.40 140 31 richmond - va ------- 56.30 141 32 harvard - ma -------- 56.10 142 33 cal st sacramento --- 56.00 143 34 n iowa -------------- 55.90 144 35 bethune-cookman -fl-- 55.80 145 36 se missouri st ------ 55.70 146 37 james madison - va -- 55.60 147 38 nw louisiana st ----- 55.50 148 39 portland st - or ---- 54.90 149 40 yale - ct ----------- 54.80 150 41 w carolina - nc ----- 54.50 153 42 new hampshire ------- 54.10 154 43 tennessee tech ------ 53.50 155 44 murray st - ky ------ 53.20 157 45 sam houston st - tx - 52.70 158 46 jacksonville st -al-- 52.60 159 47 sw missouri st ------ 52.50 160 48 rhode island -------- 52.40 161 49 grambling st - la --- 52.20 162 50 cal poly st s l o --- 52.00 164 51 princeton - nj ------ 50.80 165 52 weber st - ut ------- 50.70 170 53 brown - ri ---------- 47.30 171 54 st mary's - ca ------ 46.20 172 55 indiana st ---------- 45.80 173 56 gardner-webb - nc --- 45.20 174 57 nicholls st - la ---- 45.00 175 58 citadel - sc -------- 44.70 176 59 s illinois ---------- 44.40 177 60 dayton - oh --------- 44.20 178 61 texas st -s m (sw tx) 44.10 179 62 florida a&m --------- 43.90 180 63 hampton - va -------- 43.80 181 64 tn-chattanooga ------ 43.50 182 65 lafayette - pa ------ 43.40 183 66 jackson st - ms ----- 43.00 184 67 e tennessee st ------ 42.80 185 68 dartmouth - nh ------ 42.70 186 69 florida intl -------- 42.20 187 70 towson st - md ------ 41.90 188 71 holy cross - ma ----- 41.30 189 72 duquesne - ny ------- 41.20 190 73 v m i / va military - 40.40 191 74 southern u - la ----- 40.20 192 75 cornell - ny -------- 39.70 193 76 tennessee st -------- 39.20 194 77 s carolina st ------- 39.10 195 78 elon college - nc --- 38.90 196 79 florida atlantic ---- 38.50 197 80 morgan st - md ------ 38.30 198 81 columbia - ny ------- 38.20 199 82 albany - ny --------- 37.50 200 83 alabama a&m --------- 37.40 201 84 bucknell - pa ------- 37.20 202 85 n carolina a&t ------ 37.10 203 86 alcorn st - ms ------ 36.70 204 87 samford - al -------- 36.20 205 88 s utah -------------- 35.80 206 89 liberty - va -------- 34.40 207 90 delaware st --------- 34.10 208 91 sacred heart - ct --- 34.00 209 92 se louisiana -------- 32.20 210 93 howard - dc --------- 30.30 211 94 alabama st ---------- 29.60 212 95 texas southern ------ 29.00 213 96 morehead st - ky ---- 28.30 214 97 san diego - ca ------ 25.90 215 98 georgetown - dc ----- 25.60 216 99 norfolk st - va ----- 25.20 217 100 coastal carolina -sc- 24.90 218 101 drake - ia ---------- 24.50 219 102 davidson - nc ------- 22.50 220 103 ark pine bluff ------ 22.10 221 104 robert morris - pa -- 21.80 222 105 miss valley st ------ 21.10 223 106 charleston sthrn -sc- 17.30 224 107 stony brook - ny ---- 16.70 225 108 wagner - ny --------- 16.00 226 109 monmouth - nj ------- 15.90 227 110 st peter's - nj ----- 15.00 228 111 butler - in --------- 14.10 229 112 iona - ny ----------- 12.70 230 113 tn-martin ----------- 11.20 231 114 jacksonville - fl --- 10.70 232 115 central conn st ----- 10.60 233 116 austin peay - tn ---- 9.40 234 117 savannah st - ga ---- 7.50 235 118 la salle - pa ------- 6.70 236 119 prairie view a&m -tx- 6.20 237 120 siena - ny ---------- 5.60 238 121 valparaiso - in ----- 3.10 239 122 marist - ny --------- -1.70 240 123 st francis - pa ----- -3.90 CONFERENCE PREDICTIONS - I-AA Conf 1-123 ATLANTIC 10 1 5 delaware ------------ 67.30 2 7 massachusetts ------- 62.10 3 12 northeastern - ma --- 60.70 4 16 maine --------------- 59.30 5 17 villanova - pa ------ 59.20 6 27 william & mary - va - 56.70 7 29 hofstra - ny -------- 56.50 8 31 richmond - va ------- 56.30 9 37 james madison - va -- 55.60 10 42 new hampshire ------- 54.10 11 48 rhode island -------- 52.40 BIG SKY 1 1 montana ------------- 79.40 2 13 idaho st ------------ 60.00 3 18 montana st ---------- 59.10 4 24 n arizona ----------- 57.10 5 30 e washington -------- 56.40 6 33 cal st sacramento --- 56.00 7 39 portland st - or ---- 54.90 8 52 weber st - ut ------- 50.70 BIG SOUTH 1 56 gardner-webb - nc --- 45.20 2 73 v m i / va military - 40.40 3 89 liberty - va -------- 34.40 4 100 coastal carolina -sc- 24.90 5 106 charleston sthrn -sc- 17.30 GATEWAY 1 4 w illinois ---------- 68.50 2 14 w kentucky ---------- 59.80 3 21 youngstown st - oh -- 58.60 4 28 illinois st --------- 56.60 5 34 n iowa -------------- 55.90 6 47 sw missouri st ------ 52.50 7 55 indiana st ---------- 45.80 8 59 s illinois ---------- 44.40 INDEPENDENTS: I-AA The order is for strength only. 1 10 cal davis ----------- 61.20 2 15 n colorado ---------- 59.70 3 50 cal poly st s l o --- 52.00 4 54 st mary's - ca ------ 46.20 5 69 florida intl -------- 42.20 6 79 florida atlantic ---- 38.50 7 88 s utah -------------- 35.80 8 92 se louisiana -------- 32.20 9 117 savannah st - ga ---- 7.50 IVY LEAGUE 1 9 pennsylvania -------- 61.40 2 32 harvard - ma -------- 56.10 3 40 yale - ct ----------- 54.80 4 51 princeton - nj ------ 50.80 5 53 brown - ri ---------- 47.30 6 68 dartmouth - nh ------ 42.70 7 75 cornell - ny -------- 39.70 8 81 columbia - ny ------- 38.20 METRO ATLANTIC 1 72 duquesne - ny ------- 41.20 2 110 st peter's - nj ----- 15.00 3 112 iona - ny ----------- 12.70 4 118 la salle - pa ------- 6.70 5 120 siena - ny ---------- 5.60 6 122 marist - ny --------- -1.70 MID-EASTERN FL A&M plays the conference schedule but its games don't count in the conference race. 1 35 bethune-cookman -fl-- 55.80 2 62 florida a&m --------- 43.90 3 63 hampton - va -------- 43.80 4 77 s carolina st ------- 39.10 5 80 morgan st - md ------ 38.30 6 85 n carolina a&t ------ 37.10 7 90 delaware st --------- 34.10 8 93 howard - dc --------- 30.30 9 99 norfolk st - va ----- 25.20 NORTHEAST 1 82 albany - ny --------- 37.50 2 91 sacred heart - ct --- 34.00 3 104 robert morris - pa -- 21.80 4 107 stony brook - ny ---- 16.70 5 108 wagner - ny --------- 16.00 6 109 monmouth - nj ------- 15.90 7 115 central conn st ----- 10.60 8 123 st francis - pa ----- -3.90 OHIO VALLEY 1 23 e kentucky ---------- 57.20 2 25 e illinois ---------- 57.00 3 36 se missouri st ------ 55.70 4 43 tennessee tech ------ 53.50 5 44 murray st - ky ------ 53.20 6 46 jacksonville st -al-- 52.60 7 76 tennessee st -------- 39.20 8 87 samford - al -------- 36.20 9 113 tn-martin ----------- 11.20 PATRIOT LEAGUE 1 8 fordham - ny -------- 61.70 2 22 colgate - ny -------- 57.40 3 26 lehigh - pa --------- 56.80 4 65 lafayette - pa ------ 43.40 5 70 towson st - md ------ 41.90 6 71 holy cross - ma ----- 41.30 7 84 bucknell - pa ------- 37.20 8 98 georgetown - dc ----- 25.60 PIONEER - NORTH, playoff champ: dayton 1 60 dayton - oh --------- 44.20 2 97 san diego - ca ------ 25.90 3 101 drake - ia ---------- 24.50 4 111 butler - in --------- 14.10 5 121 valparaiso - in ----- 3.10 PIONEER - SOUTH 1 96 morehead st - ky ---- 28.30 2 102 davidson - nc ------- 22.50 3 114 jacksonville - fl --- 10.70 4 116 austin peay - tn ---- 9.40 S W A C - EAST 1 66 jackson st - ms ----- 43.00 2 83 alabama a&m --------- 37.40 3 86 alcorn st - ms ------ 36.70 4 94 alabama st ---------- 29.60 5 105 miss valley st ------ 21.10 S W A C - WEST, playoff champ: grambling 1 49 grambling st - la --- 52.20 2 74 southern u - la ----- 40.20 3 95 texas southern ------ 29.00 4 103 ark pine bluff ------ 22.10 5 119 prairie view a&m -tx- 6.20 SOUTHERN 1 3 georgia southern ---- 73.90 2 6 furman - sc --------- 67.00 3 11 appalachian st - nc - 61.00 4 19 wofford - sc -------- 58.90 5 41 w carolina - nc ----- 54.50 6 58 citadel - sc -------- 44.70 7 64 tn-chattanooga ------ 43.50 8 67 e tennessee st ------ 42.80 9 78 elon college - nc --- 38.90 SOUTHLAND 1 2 mcneese st - la ----- 76.70 2 20 s f austin - tx ----- 58.70 3 38 nw louisiana st ----- 55.50 4 45 sam houston st - tx - 52.70 5 57 nicholls st - la ---- 45.00 6 61 texas st -s m (sw tx) 44.10