From: "Steve Wrathell" Subject: CPA Rkgs/CPA Retrodiction Rkgs-Preseason Page, 2004 Date: Thu, 26 Aug 2004 06:26:01 +0000 CPA RANKINGS - NCAA FOOTBALL (TM) CPA RETRODICTION RANKINGS - NCAA FOOTBALL (TM) (c) 2004, Steven Wrathell CPA PC 2004 PRESEASON PAGE - I'm sorry it wasn't out earlier. As this is a FREE site, I have to do "real" work to pay the bills. I also study the effectiveness of the components of my preseason ranking system and work on improvements (as I always try to do), so I can (hopefully) improve my accuracy. Computer football Power rankings designed for Accuracy (TM) CPA Rankings for NCAA I-AA are part of the Gridiron Power Index (GPI) which applies BCS methodology to Division I-AA. For these systems' descriptions & links to other CPA Rankings pages (NCAA & NFL) & other links, such as D Wilson's RSFC, K Massey's Comparisons, T Beck's Prediction Tracker, the GPI, & C Stassen's Preseason pages, go to my home/description page at: http://www.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/rate/wrathell.html + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Remember the victims of 9/11/2001. |********=============== |********=============== This web site supports the WRITTEN U.S. |********=============== Constitution, which is ABOVE the judiciary. |********=============== |======================= |======================= GOD BLESS AMERICA! |======================= + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + The Sad News: My father, Robert Wrathell, died May 23, 2004, at age 75. He had heart problems since 1997 and had open heart surgery a few years ago. He died peacefully in his sleep at home. He served in the Air Force during the Korean War. He also served in the Detroit Police Force until his duty-disability retirement. He was a divorced father of 3 and a grandfather of 2. My dad was a fan of the U of Michigan, the Detroit Lions, the Detroit Tigers, and especially of the Detroit Red Wings. He greatly opposed judicial activism. He is greatly missed. + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + More Sad News: I just heard that David Rothman passed away in June, 2004. His FACT system was part of the BCS standings until the anti-margin-of- victory (MOV) movement led to the removal of his and other MOV systems. The Gridiron Power Index (GPI) (the BCS-style system for I-AA), though, has been utilizing Rothman's system, which I feel was one of the best out there. + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + New Magazine: I-AA.org is issuing a new printed preseason magazine. Their magazine has previously been e-mail-only editions. Remember, ALL of the other magazine have VERY limited (if any) I-AA coverage. To order it, contact the publishing company, Retro Sports, at http://www.retro-sports.com/Category.cfm?CategoryID=160&ProductlineID=15 The price is $4.95 plus S&H (the exact pricing data is on their site). Look for my article (shortened version): "WHICH I-AA PRESEASON PICKS ARE BEST?" I compared 16 sets of preseason picks from computers, polls, and magazines against the final GPI. (Guess who was #1?) The longer version should be posted to i-aa.org soon. I-A PRESEASON ACCURACY Isn't deception dishonest? Phil Steele's 2004 magazine, at pp. 306-307, claims he was "#1 FIVE STRAIGHT YEARS" (according to Chris Stassen's web site). Of course, note that Steele refers to "magazines," while Stassen rates magazines AND WEB SITES. So Phil excludes me because my info is on the net FOR FREE while he charges $7.95 per copy! Even the term, "#1 FIVE STRAIGHT YEARS" implies being #1 for EACH of the 5 years (no one did that). What's the truth? CPA Rankings has been doing WELL for NCAA I-A conference race predictions, according to Chris Stassen's site, which measures the preseason magazines and some web sites. CPA Rankings was #1 for 2003! CPA Rankings was #1 for 2000! CPA Rankings was #1 for the 5-years of 1999-2003! CPA Rankings was #1 for the 3-years of 2001-2003! CPA Rankings was #1 for the 3-years of 2000-2002! http://preseason.stassen.com/prediction-accuracy/2003.html http://preseason.stassen.com/prediction-accuracy/2000.html http://preseason.stassen.com/prediction-accuracy/2004-5yr.html http://preseason.stassen.com/prediction-accuracy/2004-3yr.html http://preseason.stassen.com/prediction-accuracy/2003-3yr.html And for the record, for the five years of 1999 thru 2003, CPA Rankings beat Phil Steele by a score of 707 to 729 -- which is a LARGE separation. No magazine has I-AA 1-123 rankings, but CPA Rankings, CPA Retrodiction and most computer systems do. My NFL preseason info will be on my current NFL page about one week before the regular season begins, since I do consider player performances, etc. during the exhibition games. WHAT'S NEW FOR 2004 (& LATER): The BCS standings formula has been changed to eliminate the SOS quartile, losses, and the Q Win factors. Together, these acted as a "computer" system, but, as I had written before, THESE, not the 7 "real" computer systems in the BCS, kicked USC out of the National Championship Game. These factors ranked USC as #7. Also, the NY Times has dropped out again and, to appease the pollsters who hate computer systems, the polls have now doubled their weight. However, instead of using poll rankings (#1, #2, etc.), the percentages of the vote totals will be used. Thus, it will make a difference if #2 and #3 are close in the vote. The big story in I-A started last year and begins to take effect this year. The ACC raided the Big East, taking Miami-FL and Va Tech. Add Boston College to this list for 2005. The Big East then raided the non-BCS conferences, which then began to raid each other. Florida teams felt like moving from I-AA to I-A. Fla Atlantic (which was in the I-AA playoffs in 2003) and Fla Intl are transitionals to I-A, despite having had football programs for only a very short time. Fla A&M was going to make the move, but changed its mind. It would have been the first traditionally black college in I-A. Fla A&M was in the MEAC, but its 2004 schedule reflects its transitional plans, being loaded with I-A teams. It will be eligible for the MEAC title again in 2005. Strong ex-Division II teams continue to move to I-AA and have formed a new conference, the Great West. N Dakota St & S Dakota St are in transition to I-AA, as were Cal Davis and N Colorado last year. None of these 4 Great West teams are eligible yet for the I-AA playoffs. Cal Poly SLO and S Utah also join the conference. The economy continues to hit I-AA. E Tenn St, Sienna, & St. Mary's-CA played their final football seasons in 2003. For 2004, here is a summary of the above and other changes in I-A and in I-AA: Teams--------------- 2003 Confs----------------- 2004 Confs----------------- Miami FL ............ BIG EAST___________________ ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE__ Virginia Tech ....... BIG EAST___________________ ATLANTIC COAS TCONFERENCE__ Connecticut ......... INDEPENDENTS: I-A__________ BIG EAST___________________ Troy St - AL ........ INDEPENDENTS: I-A__________ SUN BELT CONFERENCE________ Florida Atlantic .... INDEPENDENTS: I-AA_________ INDEPENDENTS: I-A__________ Florida Intl ........ INDEPENDENTS: I-AA_________ INDEPENDENTS: I-A__________ towson st - md ------ PATRIOT LEAGUE_____________ ATLANTIC 10________________ cal davis ----------- INDEPENDENTS: I-AA_________ GREAT WEST_________________ cal poly st s l o --- INDEPENDENTS: I-AA_________ GREAT WEST_________________ n colorado ---------- INDEPENDENTS: I-AA_________ GREAT WEST_________________ s utah -------------- INDEPENDENTS: I-AA_________ GREAT WEST_________________ n dakota st --------- Division II________________ GREAT WEST_________________ s dakota st --------- Division II________________ GREAT WEST_________________ florida a&m --------- was in the MEAC & plays an independent schedule in 2004. e tennessee st ------ SOUTHERN___________________ dropped football siena - ny ---------- METRO ATLANTIC_____________ dropped football st mary's - ca ------ INDEPENDENTS: I-AA_________ dropped football The preseason rankings and ratings are the same for both CPA Rankings and CPA Retrodiction. The team-specific Home Field Advantage (HFA) factors do differ between the systems. See them on my current NCAA page. Conference predictions follow the 1-117+2 list. Division I-A 1-117 + 2 transitionals 239 Rank Rank --------Team-------- Rating 1 1 U S C/Southern Cal... 100.00 2 2 Oklahoma ............ 98.80 3 3 Georgia ............. 97.90 4 4 LSU / Louisiana St .. 91.80 5 5 Miami FL ............ 90.60 6 6 Ohio St ............. 90.50 7 7 Florida St .......... 89.30 8 8 Texas ............... 89.20 9 9 Michigan ............ 89.10 10 10 Kansas St ........... 87.90 11 11 Iowa ................ 87.70 12 12 Auburn - AL ......... 86.60 13 13 Virginia ............ 86.50 14 14 Clemson - SC ........ 86.40 15 15 Maryland ............ 86.00 16 16 Tennessee ........... 85.80 17 17 N Carolina St ....... 85.70 18 18 Florida ............. 85.50 19 19 W Virginia .......... 85.40 20 20 Washington St ....... 85.20 21 21 Nebraska ............ 84.90 22 22 Purdue - IN ......... 84.70 23 23 Miami OH ............ 84.50 24 24 California .......... 84.40 25 25 Missouri ............ 84.30 26 26 Wisconsin ........... 84.20 27 27 Mississippi ......... 83.30 28 28 Minnesota ........... 83.20 29 29 Utah ................ 82.90 30 30 Boise St - ID ....... 82.70 31 31 Texas Tech .......... 82.50 32 32 Bowling Green - OH .. 82.40 33 33 Oregon .............. 82.10 34 34 Oklahoma St ......... 81.70 35 35 Oregon St ........... 81.30 36 36 Arkansas ............ 81.00 37 37 Georgia Tech ........ 80.90 38 38 Boston College - MA . 80.60 39 39 Virginia Tech ....... 80.30 40 40 Texas Christian/TCU.. 80.10 41 41 Alabama ............. 79.90 42 42 Notre Dame - IN ..... 79.70 43 43 Michigan St ......... 78.80 44 44 Colorado ............ 78.60 45 45 Pittsburgh - PA ..... 78.50 46 46 Southern Miss ....... 78.30 47 47 S Carolina .......... 78.00 48 48 N Illinois .......... 77.90 49 49 Washington .......... 77.80 50 50 Memphis - TN ........ 77.70 51 51 Connecticut ......... 77.50 52 52 Toledo - OH ......... 77.40 53 53 Wake Forest - NC .... 77.10 54 54 Marshall - WV ....... 77.00 55 55 Louisville - KY ..... 76.90 56 56 Arizona St .......... 76.70 57 57 Fresno St - CA ...... 76.60 58 58 Colorado St ......... 76.50 59 59 U C L A - CA ........ 76.30 60 60 Penn St ............. 76.20 61 61 Syracuse - NY ....... 76.10 62 62 Northwestern - IL ... 75.80 63 63 New Mexico .......... 75.70 64 64 Hawaii .............. 75.60 65 65 S Florida/USF ....... 75.40 66 66 San Diego St - CA ... 75.30 67 67 Texas A&M ........... 75.20 68 68 Tulsa - OK .......... 75.10 69 69 North Texas ......... 75.00 70 70 Rutgers - NJ ........ 74.90 71 71 Stanford - CA ....... 74.20 72 72 Kentucky ............ 73.50 73 73 Alabama-Birm/UAB .... 73.40 74 74 U N L V - NV ........ 73.20 75 75 Houston - TX ........ 73.00 76 76 Air Force - CO ...... 72.90 77 77 Brigham Young - UT .. 72.80 78 78 Navy - MD ........... 72.40 79 79 Cincinnati - OH ..... 72.10 80 80 Duke - NC ........... 71.80 81 81 Arizona ............. 71.40 83 82 Iowa St ............. 69.80 84 83 N Carolina .......... 69.60 85 84 Vanderbilt - TN ..... 69.60 86 85 Tulane - LA ......... 69.40 87 86 Kansas .............. 69.00 88 87 Illinois ............ 68.80 89 88 Rice - TX ........... 67.90 90 89 Akron - OH .......... 67.80 91 90 Mississippi St ...... 67.70 92 91 Louisiana Tech ...... 67.50 93 92 Nevada .............. 66.70 96 93 Wyoming ............. 66.30 97 94 Indiana ............. 66.20 102 95 Troy St - AL ........ 64.40 104 96 Temple - PA ......... 64.00 106 97 Baylor - TX ......... 63.60 107 98 Ball St - IN ........ 63.50 109 99 C Florida/UCF ....... 62.90 110 100 LA Lafayette(SW LA) . 62.80 111 101 W Michigan .......... 62.70 117 102 Kent St - OH ........ 61.60 118 103 M Tennessee St ...... 61.50 119 104 Utah St ............. 61.40 121 105 New Mexico St ....... 61.20 124 106 San Jose St - CA .... 60.30 128 107 Ohio ................ 59.50 129 108 E Carolina - NC ..... 58.40 130 109 E Michigan .......... 58.30 131 110 C Michigan .......... 58.20 133 111 Idaho ............... 57.30 136 112 Texas El Paso/UTEP... 56.90 138 113 LA Monroe (NE LA) ... 56.70 143 114 Arkansas St ......... 54.60 146 115 S M U - TX .......... 53.60 150 116 Buffalo - NY ........ 52.20 154 117 Army - NY ........... 51.60 100 Tr Florida Atlantic .... 65.05 196 Tr Florida Intl ........ 41.35 CONFERENCE PREDICTIONS Conf 1-117 t = tie in conf. standings I'm predicting some ties in some conference races: Big 10, CUSA, Mntn W, Sun B & WAC. ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE 1 5 Miami FL ............ 90.60 2 7 Florida St .......... 89.30 3 13 Virginia ............ 86.50 4 14 Clemson - SC ........ 86.40 5 15 Maryland ............ 86.00 6 17 N Carolina St ....... 85.70 7 37 Georgia Tech ........ 80.90 8 39 Virginia Tech ....... 80.30 9 53 Wake Forest - NC .... 77.10 10 80 Duke - NC ........... 71.80 11 84 N Carolina .......... 69.60 BIG 10 1 6 Ohio St ............. 90.50 2 9 Michigan ............ 89.10 3 11 Iowa ................ 87.70 4-6t 22 Purdue - IN ......... 84.70 4-6t 26 Wisconsin ........... 84.20 4-6t 28 Minnesota ........... 83.20 7 43 Michigan St ......... 78.80 8-9t 60 Penn St ............. 76.20 8-9t 62 Northwestern - IL ... 75.80 10 87 Illinois ............ 68.80 11 94 Indiana ............. 66.20 BIG 12 playoff champ: Oklahoma BIG 12 - NORTH 1 10 Kansas St ........... 87.90 2 21 Nebraska ............ 84.90 3 25 Missouri ............ 84.30 4 44 Colorado ............ 78.60 5 82 Iowa St ............. 69.80 6 86 Kansas .............. 69.00 BIG 12 - SOUTH 1 2 Oklahoma ............ 98.80 2 8 Texas ............... 89.20 3 31 Texas Tech .......... 82.50 4 34 Oklahoma St ......... 81.70 5 67 Texas A&M ........... 75.20 6 97 Baylor - TX ......... 63.60 BIG EAST 1 19 W Virginia .......... 85.40 2 38 Boston College - MA . 80.60 3 45 Pittsburgh - PA ..... 78.50 4 51 Connecticut ......... 77.50 5 61 Syracuse - NY ....... 76.10 6 70 Rutgers - NJ ........ 74.90 7 96 Temple - PA ......... 64.00 CONFERENCE U S A 1 40 Texas Christian/TCU.. 80.10 2 46 Southern Miss ....... 78.30 3 50 Memphis - TN ........ 77.70 4 55 Louisville - KY ..... 76.90 5 65 S Florida/USF ....... 75.40 6-7t 73 Alabama-Birm/UAB .... 73.40 6-7t 75 Houston - TX ........ 73.00 8 79 Cincinnati - OH ..... 72.10 9 85 Tulane - LA ......... 69.40 10 108 E Carolina - NC ..... 58.40 11 117 Army - NY ........... 51.60 INDEPENDENTS: I-A (Incl. Transitionals) The order is for strength only. 1 42 Notre Dame - IN ..... 79.70 2 78 Navy - MD ........... 72.40 3 Tr Florida Atlantic .... 65.05 4 Tr Florida Intl ........ 41.35 M A C playoff champ: Miami OH MID-AMERICA CONFERENCE - EAST 1 23 Miami OH ............ 84.50 2 54 Marshall - WV ....... 77.00 3 89 Akron - OH .......... 67.80 4 99 C Florida/UCF ....... 62.90 5 102 Kent St - OH ........ 61.60 6 107 Ohio ................ 59.50 7 116 Buffalo - NY ........ 52.20 MID-AMERICA CONFERENCE - WEST 1 32 Bowling Green - OH .. 82.40 2 48 N Illinois .......... 77.90 3 52 Toledo - OH ......... 77.40 4 98 Ball St - IN ........ 63.50 5 101 W Michigan .......... 62.70 6 109 E Michigan .......... 58.30 7 110 C Michigan .......... 58.20 MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE 1 29 Utah ................ 82.90 2 58 Colorado St ......... 76.50 3 63 New Mexico .......... 75.70 4 66 San Diego St - CA ... 75.30 5-7t 74 U N L V - NV ........ 73.20 5-7t 76 Air Force - CO ...... 72.90 5-7t 77 Brigham Young - UT .. 72.80 8 93 Wyoming ............. 66.30 PAC-10 CONFERENCE 1 1 U S C/Southern Cal... 100.00 2 20 Washington St ....... 85.20 3 24 California .......... 84.40 4 33 Oregon .............. 82.10 5 35 Oregon St ........... 81.30 6 49 Washington .......... 77.80 7 56 Arizona St .......... 76.70 8 59 U C L A - CA ........ 76.30 9 71 Stanford - CA ....... 74.20 10 81 Arizona ............. 71.40 S E C playoff champ: Georgia SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE - EAST 1 3 Georgia ............. 97.90 2 16 Tennessee ........... 85.80 3 18 Florida ............. 85.50 4 47 S Carolina .......... 78.00 5 72 Kentucky ............ 73.50 6 83 Vanderbilt - TN ..... 69.60 SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE - WEST 1 4 LSU / Louisiana St .. 91.80 2 12 Auburn - AL ......... 86.60 3 27 Mississippi ......... 83.30 4 36 Arkansas ............ 81.00 5 41 Alabama ............. 79.90 6 90 Mississippi St ...... 67.70 SUN BELT CONFERENCE 1 69 North Texas ......... 75.00 2 95 Troy St - AL ........ 64.40 3-5t 100 LA Lafayette(SW LA) . 62.80 3-5t 103 M Tennessee St ...... 61.50 3-5t 104 Utah St ............. 61.40 6 105 New Mexico St ....... 61.20 7 111 Idaho ............... 57.30 8 113 LA Monroe (NE LA) ... 56.70 9 114 Arkansas St ......... 54.60 WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE 1 30 Boise St - ID ....... 82.70 2 57 Fresno St - CA ...... 76.60 3 64 Hawaii .............. 75.60 4 68 Tulsa - OK .......... 75.10 5 88 Rice - TX ........... 67.90 6-7t 91 Louisiana Tech ...... 67.50 6-7t 92 Nevada .............. 66.70 8 106 San Jose St - CA .... 60.30 9 112 Texas El Paso/UTEP... 56.90 10 115 S M U - TX .......... 53.60 Conference predictions follow the 1-120 list. Division I-AA 1-120 N Dak St & S Dak St, in transition from Div-II, are listed here. 239 Rank Rank --------Team-------- Rating 82 1 delaware ------------ 70.90 94 2 w kentucky ---------- 66.50 95 3 montana ------------- 66.40 98 4 wofford - sc -------- 65.90 99 5 mcneese st - la ----- 65.30 101 6 massachusetts ------- 65.00 103 7 colgate - ny -------- 64.10 105 8 n arizona ----------- 63.70 108 9 n iowa -------------- 63.20 112 10 villanova - pa ------ 62.60 113 11 w illinois ---------- 62.00 114 12 georgia southern ---- 61.90 115 13 n colorado ---------- 61.80 116 14 northeastern - ma --- 61.70 120 15 n dakota st --------- 61.25 122 16 montana st ---------- 60.90 123 17 lehigh - pa --------- 60.60 125 18 idaho st ------------ 60.10 126 19 e washington -------- 60.00 127 20 furman - sc --------- 59.70 132 21 cal davis ----------- 58.00 134 22 s dakota st --------- 57.25 135 23 maine --------------- 57.10 137 24 s illinois ---------- 56.80 139 25 pennsylvania -------- 56.60 140 26 appalachian st - nc - 56.50 141 27 william & mary - va - 55.40 142 28 s f austin - tx ----- 55.30 144 29 illinois st --------- 54.40 145 30 yale - ct ----------- 53.80 147 31 youngstown st - oh -- 53.40 148 32 weber st - ut ------- 53.30 149 33 nw louisiana st ----- 52.40 151 34 portland st - or ---- 52.00 152 35 cal poly st s l o --- 51.90 153 36 harvard - ma -------- 51.80 155 37 james madison - va -- 51.40 156 38 fordham - ny -------- 51.30 157 39 e kentucky ---------- 51.00 158 40 nicholls st - la ---- 50.80 159 41 jacksonville st -al-- 50.80 160 42 cal st sacramento --- 50.60 161 43 new hampshire ------- 50.50 162 44 sw missouri st ------ 49.40 163 45 rhode island -------- 49.20 164 46 richmond - va ------- 49.00 165 47 bethune-cookman -fl-- 48.80 166 48 hofstra - ny -------- 48.20 167 49 e illinois ---------- 47.60 168 50 brown - ri ---------- 47.20 169 51 sam houston st - tx - 47.10 170 52 w carolina - nc ----- 46.70 171 53 grambling st - la --- 46.60 172 54 texas st -s m (sw tx) 46.00 173 55 southern u - la ----- 45.80 174 56 se missouri st ------ 45.80 175 57 s utah -------------- 45.70 176 58 indiana st ---------- 45.60 177 59 citadel - sc -------- 45.50 178 60 princeton - nj ------ 44.90 179 61 lafayette - pa ------ 44.80 180 62 florida a&m --------- 44.70 181 63 murray st - ky ------ 44.60 182 64 dartmouth - nh ------ 44.50 183 65 samford - al -------- 44.40 184 66 bucknell - pa ------- 44.30 185 67 gardner-webb - nc --- 44.20 186 68 hampton - va -------- 44.10 187 69 n carolina a&t ------ 44.00 188 70 s carolina st ------- 43.90 189 71 tennessee st -------- 43.80 190 72 towson st - md ------ 43.60 191 73 tn-chattanooga ------ 43.50 192 74 tennessee tech ------ 43.20 193 75 alabama a&m --------- 42.90 194 76 alabama st ---------- 42.50 195 77 columbia - ny ------- 42.40 197 78 v m i / va military - 41.20 198 79 dayton - oh --------- 40.30 199 80 morgan st - md ------ 38.50 200 81 holy cross - ma ----- 37.30 201 82 se louisiana -------- 36.10 202 83 alcorn st - ms ------ 35.80 203 84 duquesne - ny ------- 35.60 204 85 cornell - ny -------- 35.00 205 86 liberty - va -------- 34.90 206 87 elon college - nc --- 34.50 207 88 howard - dc --------- 33.50 208 89 georgetown - dc ----- 33.40 209 90 jackson st - ms ----- 33.30 210 91 albany - ny --------- 32.80 211 92 coastal carolina -sc- 32.70 212 93 morehead st - ky ---- 32.50 213 94 texas southern ------ 32.40 214 95 ark pine bluff ------ 32.00 215 96 san diego - ca ------ 30.20 216 97 drake - ia ---------- 29.20 217 98 tn-martin ----------- 28.90 218 99 monmouth - nj ------- 28.70 219 100 delaware st --------- 24.80 220 101 valparaiso - in ----- 24.50 221 102 stony brook - ny ---- 22.40 222 103 miss valley st ------ 22.20 223 104 sacred heart - ct --- 20.50 224 105 robert morris - pa -- 19.50 225 106 wagner - ny --------- 19.20 226 107 norfolk st - va ----- 19.10 227 108 jacksonville - fl --- 18.60 228 109 davidson - nc ------- 18.10 229 110 austin peay - tn ---- 16.70 230 111 central conn st ----- 14.90 231 112 marist - ny --------- 14.20 232 113 butler - in --------- 13.80 233 114 iona - ny ----------- 13.70 234 115 charleston sthrn -sc- 8.70 235 116 st peter's - nj ----- 7.70 236 117 savannah st - ga ---- 7.50 237 118 st francis - pa ----- 6.90 238 119 prairie view a&m -tx- 6.10 239 120 la salle - pa ------- 0.00 CONFERENCE PREDICTIONS - I-AA Conf 1-120 ATLANTIC 10 - NORTH 1 6 massachusetts ------- 65.00 2 14 northeastern - ma --- 61.70 3 23 maine --------------- 57.10 4 43 new hampshire ------- 50.50 5 45 rhode island -------- 49.20 6 48 hofstra - ny -------- 48.20 ATLANTIC 10 - SOUTH, playoff champ: Delaware 1 1 delaware ------------ 70.90 2 10 villanova - pa ------ 62.60 3 27 william & mary - va - 55.40 4 37 james madison - va -- 51.40 5 46 richmond - va ------- 49.00 6 72 towson st - md ------ 43.60 BIG SKY 1 3 montana ------------- 66.40 2 8 n arizona ----------- 63.70 3 16 montana st ---------- 60.90 4 18 idaho st ------------ 60.10 5 19 e washington -------- 60.00 6 32 weber st - ut ------- 53.30 7 34 portland st - or ---- 52.00 8 42 cal st sacramento --- 50.60 BIG SOUTH 1 67 gardner-webb - nc --- 44.20 2 78 v m i / va military - 41.20 3 86 liberty - va -------- 34.90 4 92 coastal carolina -sc- 32.70 5 115 charleston sthrn -sc- 8.70 GATEWAY 1 2 w kentucky ---------- 66.50 2 9 n iowa -------------- 63.20 3 11 w illinois ---------- 62.00 4 24 s illinois ---------- 56.80 5 29 illinois st --------- 54.40 6 31 youngstown st - oh -- 53.40 7 44 sw missouri st ------ 49.40 8 58 indiana st ---------- 45.60 GREAT WEST (new conference) 1 13 n colorado ---------- 61.80 2 15 n dakota st --------- 61.25 3 21 cal davis ----------- 58.00 4 22 s dakota st --------- 57.25 5 35 cal poly st s l o --- 51.90 6 57 s utah -------------- 45.70 INDEPENDENTS: I-AA The order is for strength only. 1 82 se louisiana -------- 36.10 2 117 savannah st - ga ---- 7.50 IVY LEAGUE 1 25 pennsylvania -------- 56.60 2 30 yale - ct ----------- 53.80 3 36 harvard - ma -------- 51.80 4 50 brown - ri ---------- 47.20 5 60 princeton - nj ------ 44.90 6 64 dartmouth - nh ------ 44.50 7 77 columbia - ny ------- 42.40 8 85 cornell - ny -------- 35.00 METRO ATLANTIC 1 84 duquesne - ny ------- 35.60 2 112 marist - ny --------- 14.20 3 114 iona - ny ----------- 13.70 4 116 st peter's - nj ----- 7.70 5 120 la salle - pa ------- 0.00 MID-EASTERN FL A&M is "in" the conference, but plays an independent schedule in 2004. in the conference race. 1 47 bethune-cookman -fl-- 48.80 2 68 hampton - va -------- 44.10 3 69 n carolina a&t ------ 44.00 4 70 s carolina st ------- 43.90 5 80 morgan st - md ------ 38.50 6 88 howard - dc --------- 33.50 7 100 delaware st --------- 24.80 8 107 norfolk st - va ----- 19.10 NA 62 florida a&m --------- 44.70 NORTHEAST 1 91 albany - ny --------- 32.80 2 99 monmouth - nj ------- 28.70 3 102 stony brook - ny ---- 22.40 4 104 sacred heart - ct --- 20.50 5 105 robert morris - pa -- 19.50 6 106 wagner - ny --------- 19.20 7 111 central conn st ----- 14.90 8 118 st francis - pa ----- 6.90 OHIO VALLEY 1 39 e kentucky ---------- 51.00 2 41 jacksonville st -al-- 50.80 3 49 e illinois ---------- 47.60 4 56 se missouri st ------ 45.80 5 63 murray st - ky ------ 44.60 6 65 samford - al -------- 44.40 7 71 tennessee st -------- 43.80 8 74 tennessee tech ------ 43.20 9 98 tn-martin ----------- 28.90 PATRIOT LEAGUE 1 7 colgate - ny -------- 64.10 2 17 lehigh - pa --------- 60.60 3 38 fordham - ny -------- 51.30 4 61 lafayette - pa ------ 44.80 5 66 bucknell - pa ------- 44.30 6 81 holy cross - ma ----- 37.30 7 89 georgetown - dc ----- 33.40 PIONEER - NORTH, playoff champ: dayton 1 79 dayton - oh --------- 40.30 2 96 san diego - ca ------ 30.20 3 97 drake - ia ---------- 29.20 4 101 valparaiso - in ----- 24.50 5 113 butler - in --------- 13.80 PIONEER - SOUTH 1 93 morehead st - ky ---- 32.50 2 108 jacksonville - fl --- 18.60 3 109 davidson - nc ------- 18.10 4 110 austin peay - tn ---- 16.70 S W A C - EAST 1 75 alabama a&m --------- 42.90 2 76 alabama st ---------- 42.50 3 83 alcorn st - ms ------ 35.80 4 90 jackson st - ms ----- 33.30 5 103 miss valley st ------ 22.20 S W A C - WEST, playoff champ: grambling 1 53 grambling st - la --- 46.60 2 55 southern u - la ----- 45.80 3 94 texas southern ------ 32.40 4 95 ark pine bluff ------ 32.00 5 119 prairie view a&m -tx- 6.10 SOUTHERN 1 4 wofford - sc -------- 65.90 2 12 georgia southern ---- 61.90 3 20 furman - sc --------- 59.70 4 26 appalachian st - nc - 56.50 5 52 w carolina - nc ----- 46.70 6 59 citadel - sc -------- 45.50 7 73 tn-chattanooga ------ 43.50 8 87 elon college - nc --- 34.50 SOUTHLAND 1 5 mcneese st - la ----- 65.30 2 28 s f austin - tx ----- 55.30 3 33 nw louisiana st ----- 52.40 4 40 nicholls st - la ---- 50.80 5 51 sam houston st - tx - 47.10 6 54 texas st -s m (sw tx) 46.00 For my 2004 preseason ratings for the 73 NON-Division I teams that will be playing against I-A and I-AA teams this season, I'm just using my ratings for them based solely on 2003. Here they are:. ii-- 30.15 Adams St ii-- 43.24 Albany St GA ii-- 27.83 Angelo St ii-- 36.48 Arkansas-Monticello ii-- -0.87 Assumption ii-- 38.55 Augustana SD ii-- 17.40 Benedict ii-- 22.53 Bowie St ii-- 42.21 Central Washington ii-- 0.49 Charleston WV ii-- 3.66 Cheyney ii-- 8.13 Concord ii-- 48.03 Emporia St ii-- 15.45 Glenville St ii-- 35.12 Henderson St ii-- 35.69 Humboldt St ii-- -3.11 Johnson C. Smith ii-- 24.70 Lenoir-Rhyne ii-- 16.02 Lincoln MO ii-- 24.69 Lock Haven ii-- 48.28 Mercyhurst ii-- 33.32 Minn St-Mankato ii-- 22.30 Newberry ii-- 16.29 North Carolina Central ii-- 13.88 North Greenville ii-- 47.27 Ouachita Baptist ii-- 11.16 Panhandle St ii-- 31.64 Presbyterian ii-- 34.51 Slippery Rock ii-- 5.00 St Joseph's ii-- 23.92 Stillman ii-- 53.64 TAMU-Kingsville ii-- 49.99 Tarleton St ii-- 29.99 Tiffin ii-- 22.88 Tuskegee ii-- 21.24 Virginia St ii-- 24.75 Virginia Union ii-- 31.91 West Alabama ii-- 45.50 West Chester ii-- 7.14 West Virginia St ii-- 11.11 West Virginia Tech ii-- 20.29 Western New Mexico ii-- 39.07 Western Oregon ii-- 29.38 Western St ii-- 22.30 Wingate ii-- 57.50 Winona St iii- 12.75 Albion iii- 6.35 Aurora iii- 9.28 Buffalo St iii- 4.00 Catholic iii- -1.96 Hartwick iii- 19.24 Montclair St iii- 13.58 New Jersey iii- 2.33 Upper Iowa iii- 1.89 Ursinus iii- 26.23 UW-Platteville iii- 17.68 Wisconsin Lutheran naia -4.18 Allen naia 39.83 Azusa Pacific naia 23.53 Campbellsville naia 10.49 Edward Waters naia 13.21 Montana Tech naia 30.45 Montana-Western naia -7.79 Paul Quinn naia 20.05 Quincy naia 36.90 Southern Oregon naia 38.86 St Francis IN naia 30.37 St Xavier naia 16.21 Texas College naia 13.40 Union KY naia -12.53 Waldorf naia -1.52 Webber Int'l naia 13.66 William Penn