Date: Mon, 30 Jun 1997 00:09:09 -0400 From: Stewart Huckaby Subject: ARGH 1997 Preseason Power Ratings The following are the final pre-season ARGH power ratings for the 112 Division 1-A teams for 1997. These power ratings are computed using the following factors: Previous year's power rating; second previous year's power rating; previous year's strength of schedule; number of returning starters; whether the coach is returning; and whether the starting quarterback is returning. The strength of each factor varies each year based on what has happened in the two or three previous years; for example, the factor for the second previous year's power rating is way down this year, while the factor for returning starters is way up. I've included projected "paper" records for all teams. These records are based strictly on which team projects to win a particular matchup, and do not include bowl games or conference championship games. Records are calculated after power ratings are known. I've also included rankings for strength of schedule and strength of non-conference schedule. The estimated home field advantage for 1997 is .581. Any questions, comments, complaints, job offers, flames, etc.? Please send them to me at 72073.1302@compuserve.com... 1996 Power Projected Schedule NC Sched 97 96 Team Record Rating Record Rank Rank 1 3 Nebraska 11-2 .833 11-0 46 70 2 1 Ohio St. 11-1 .822 12-0 21 57 3 2 Florida 12-1 .803 11-0 8 27 4 6 N. Carolina 10-2 .795 11-0 64 65 5 9 Tennessee 10-2 .789 10-1 12 7 6 4 Florida St. 11-1 .780 9-2 17 2 7 8 Colorado 10-2 .776 9-2 6 13 8 11 Notre Dame 8-3 .757 10-2 14 21 9 16 Michigan 8-4 .754 9-2 1 10 10 7 Penn State 11-2 .744 10-1 23 82 11 13 Washington 9-3 .743 10-1 10 6 12 20 Louisiana St. 10-2 .735 10-1 60 94 13 18 Iowa 9-3 .729 9-2 56 104 14 5 Arizona St. 11-1 .706 9-2 44 56 15 14 Syracuse 9-3 .703 10-2 66 63 16 21 Texas 8-5 .697 9-2 41 55 17 32 Southern Cal 6-6 .694 7-4 16 17 18 28 Auburn 8-4 .686 9-2 28 76 19 12 Virginia Tech 10-2 .680 10-1 71 84 20 37 Texas A&M 6-6 .678 8-3 68 109 21 15 Kansas St. 9-3 .678 8-3 55 106 22 25 S. Mississippi 8-3 .674 8-3 36 4 23 19 Miami, FL 9-3 .672 9-2 54 29 24 26 Texas Tech 7-5 .666 8-3 33 61 25 17 Alabama 10-3 .664 8-3 38 46 26 10 Brigham Young 14-1 .661 9-2 81 16 27 35 UCLA 5-6 .661 6-5 9 5 28 33 Michigan St. 6-6 .657 6-5 15 73 29 22 Northwestern 9-3 .642 7-5 11 81 30 34 Stanford 7-5 .620 6-5 26 19 31 23 West Virginia 8-4 .618 7-4 50 32 32 44 Clemson 7-5 .611 8-3 69 103 33 40 S. Carolina 6-5 .606 5-6 27 48 34 48 Colorado St. 7-5 .605 9-2 83 23 35 45 Arizona 5-6 .602 6-5 35 35 36 27 Wisconsin 8-5 .602 5-7 45 92 37 47 Georgia 5-6 .601 8-3 62 99 38 69 Arkansas 4-7 .579 6-5 31 101 39 62 Purdue 3-8 .571 6-5 24 49 40 24 Virginia 7-5 .564 5-6 47 52 41 36 Navy 9-3 .558 9-2 106 105 42 53 Cincinnati 6-5 .553 6-5 72 69 43 52 Kansas 4-7 .549 5-6 29 87 44 60 Minnesota 4-7 .547 7-5 25 93 45 43 Rice 7-4 .546 7-4 76 25 46 63 Boston College 5-7 .544 7-4 42 33 47 29 E. Carolina 8-3 .540 5-6 49 24 48 42 Houston 7-5 .538 6-5 52 26 49 46 Utah 8-4 .536 8-3 85 53 50 31 Wyoming 10-2 .530 9-4 78 31 51 51 Washington St. 5-6 .528 4-7 37 100 52 50 Nevada 9-3 .521 9-2 98 44 53 75 N. Carolina St. 3-8 .520 6-5 53 66 54 57 Georgia Tech 5-6 .518 4-7 13 8 55 41 San Diego St. 8-3 .518 6-6 70 9 56 58 Miami, OH 6-5 .517 9-2 92 22 57 38 Oregon 6-5 .516 4-7 32 67 58 55 Missouri 5-6 .515 5-6 20 40 59 NA Marshall 15-0 .511 8-3 100 74 60 49 California 6-6 .505 3-8 19 50 61 59 Louisville 5-6 .505 7-4 63 41 62 54 Mississippi St. 5-6 .493 5-6 61 107 63 76 Oklahoma 3-8 .483 3-9 5 20 64 79 Pittsburgh 4-7 .476 3-8 18 11 65 30 Army 10-2 .475 8-3 102 96 66 39 Air Force 6-5 .474 9-3 94 95 67 61 Indiana 3-8 .456 3-8 4 47 68 83 Illinois 2-9 .450 1-10 12 28 69 66 Baylor 4-7 .449 1-10 7 14 70 68 SW Louisiana 5-6 .440 7-4 91 59 71 72 Mississippi 5-6 .438 4-7 43 97 72 80 Louisiana Tech 6-5 .419 6-5 87 58 73 67 Maryland 5-6 .416 3-8 51 78 74 74 Utah St. 6-5 .414 7-4 101 71 75 92 Wake Forest 3-8 .414 2-9 39 45 76 65 New Mexico 6-5 .413 5-6 96 111 77 77 Iowa St. 2-9 .408 2-9 3 12 78 78 Kentucky 4-7 .407 1-10 22 85 79 81 Tulsa 4-7 .406 2-9 65 15 80 89 Vanderbilt 2-9 .405 4-7 57 112 81 70 Ohio 6-6 .404 6-5 107 75 82 73 Oklahoma St. 5-6 .404 2-9 58 98 83 84 Toledo 7-4 .403 4-7 103 62 84 94 Bowling Green 4-7 .390 5-6 84 3 85 85 C. Florida 5-6 .390 6-5 79 68 86 87 Fresno St. 4-7 .372 5-7 90 90 87 64 S. Methodist 5-6 .366 1-10 74 42 88 88 Texas Christian 4-7 .366 4-7 73 18 89 90 C. Michigan 5-6 .365 7-4 108 60 90 56 Ball St. 8-4 .360 5-6 104 80 91 71 Memphis 4-7 .358 2-9 67 72 92 103 Duke 0-11 .356 1-10 30 34 93 82 Tulane 2-9 .354 1-10 59 43 94 101 E. Michigan 3-8 .347 6-5 110 51 95 98 Temple 1-10 .323 1-10 40 39 96 91 AL-Birmingham 5-6 .320 3-8 88 77 97 86 Idaho 6-5 .311 7-4 112 108 98 105 Nevada-Las Vegas 1-11 .311 4-7 82 54 99 93 Oregon St. 2-9 .300 2-9 48 110 100 99 Rutgers 2-9 .298 0-11 34 30 101 106 W. Michigan 2-9 .287 4-7 109 79 102 97 Arkansas St. 4-7 .287 5-6 97 88 103 96 NE Louisiana 5-6 .284 3-9 93 89 104 102 Akron 4-7 .277 1-10 75 1 105 95 N. Texas 5-6 .256 3-8 95 64 106 100 San Jose St. 3-9 .255 1-10 86 38 107 107 Hawaii 2-10 .248 2-10 80 83 108 109 Kent 2-9 .223 0-11 99 91 109 108 Wild Card U. 7-41 .214 4-34 110 104 Texas-El Paso 2-9 .213 2-9 77 37 111 112 N. Illinois 1-10 .189 0-11 89 36 112 110 Boise St. 2-10 .177 2-9 105 86 113 111 New Mexico St. 1-10 .163 0-11 111 102 The following are the power ratings for the various conferences: Projected Non-Conf Power Record Schedule Big Ten .634 31-6 .463 SEC .601 33-3 .424 Big Twelve .595 23-14 .478 Pac-10 .587 17-13 .512 ACC .553 13-14 .514 Big East .539 19-14 .529 Conference USA .503 14-21 .537 Independents .437 46-33 .438 WAC .426 19-35 .510 MAC .356 6-28 .518 Big West .307 13-23 .414