From: "Fred Stevenson" To: dwilson@cae.wisc.edu Subject: Updated Best Teams 1986-2004 2004 has now been added to my all-time rankings of best college football teams from 1986-2004. Added from 2004 were # 8 Southern Cal, #19 Auburn, #39 Oklahoma, #57 Utah, and #65 Texas. Interesting to note that once-beaten 2003 LSU outscores unbeaten 2004 Auburn. Texas has its best season in the 19 years I have computed. 2004 Utah surpasses 1999 Marshall as the best mid-major on the list. These ratings are a composite of the retro-ratings produced by Imes, Howell, Massey, Billingsley, Sorensen, Wilson, and a seventh system called Win-Loss Percentage. I have developed a methodology for combining the actual point totals generated by each system instead of combining only the ranking position generated. While this system is a composite of others systems a few general statements can be made regarding the computations. This system puts less weight on SOS than most of the computer rating systems included. It is designed to try and approximate the weighting poll voters put on SOS. Similarly, this system weights later in the season games heavier than earlier in the season games. This is consistent with the thinking of human poll voters where if you are going to lose it better be early in the season. How strong your opponents are is more important than how bad you beat them but the score does count. A road win garners more points than a home win everything else being equal. The most attractive feature of this combined system is that I have scaled each year and each system to have an identical average deviation among top 40 teams and to have an equal amount of total points among top 40 teams. What this accomplishes is that it allows each years teams and each computer systems results to have an equal chance of being influential in the computations. In other words, back in the non-parity days of the 1970's you might have two or three teams a year without a loss while in the 1980's parity era you might have an unbeaten team every other year. This system will properly account for the fact that a one loss 1980's team might very well be better than a one loss 1970's team, everything else being equal. This combined ratings system very closely approximates the human polls without the perceived bias problem associated with them. This systems correlation to the final human polls is almost twice that of any of the individual systems within it. I've completed 19 years so far (1986-2004). 10,000 points represents approximately what it takes to be a national champion in an average year. Here is my systems top 95 teams from 1986-2004. National champions per my system are in all caps. RK YEAR TEAM W-L-T POINTS AP/COA 01..1995 NEBRASKA...........12-0-0....13,084....1/1 02..2001 MIAMI (FLA.).......12-0-0....12,893....1/1 03..1986 PENN STATE.........12-0-0....12,702....1/1 04..1992 ALABAMA............13-0-0....12,565....1/1 05..1999 FLORIDA STATE......12-0-0....12,206....1/1 06..1998 TENNESSEE..........13-0-0....11,964....1/1 07..2000 OKLAHOMA...........13-0-0....11,935....1/1 08..2004 SOUTHERN CAL.......13-0-0....11,790....1/1 09..2002 OHIO STATE.........14-0-0....11,741....1/1 10..1988 NOTRE DAME.........12-0-0....11,710....1/1 11..1987 MIAMI (FLA.).......12-0-0....11,605....1/1 12..1994 NEBRASKA...........13-0-0....11,372....1/1 13..1991 MIAMI (FLA.).......12-0-0....11,098....1/2 14..2003 LOUISIANA STATE....13-1-0....10,998....2/1 15..1994 Penn State.........12-0-0....10,930....2/2 16..1991 Washington.........12-0-0....10,915....2/1 17..1996 FLORIDA............12-1-0....10,798....1/1 18..1997 NEBRASKA...........13-0-0....10,685....2/1 19..2004 Auburn.............13-0-0....10,369....2/2 20..2003 Southern Cal.......12-1-0....10,246....1/2 RK YEAR TEAM W-L-T POINTS AP/COA 21..1990 GEORGIA TECH.......11-0-1....10,199....2/1 22..1988 Miami (Fla.).......11-1-0....10,192....2/2 23..2000 Miami (Fla.).......11-1-0....10,149....2/2 24..1993 FLORIDA STATE......12-1-0....10,148....1/1 25..1997 Michigan...........12-0-0....10,108....1/2 26..1989 NOTRE DAME.........12-1-0....10,075....2/3 27..1986 Oklahoma...........11-1-0.....9,933....3/3 28..1987 Florida State......11-1-0.....9,932....2/2 29..1986 Miami (Fla.).......11-1-0.....9,891....2/2 30..1995 Florida............12-1-0.....9,868....2/3 31..1990 Colorado...........11-1-1.....9,851....1/2 32..1992 Florida State......11-1-0.....9.835....2/2 33..1989 Miami (Fla.).......11-1-0.....9,584....1/1 34..1996 Ohio State.........11-1-0.....9,574....2/2 35..2002 Miami (Fla.).......12-1-0.....9,543....2/2 36..1992 Miami (Fla.).......11-1-0.....9,461....3/3 37..1996 Florida State......11-1-0.....9,408....3/3 38..1999 Nebraska...........12-1-0.....9,392....3/2 39..2004 Oklahoma...........12-1-0.....9,351....3/3 40..2002 Southern Cal.......11-2-0.....9,286....4/4 RK YEAR TEAM W-L-T POINTS AP/COA 41..1990 Miami (Fla.).......10-2-0.....9,031....3/3 42..1998 Ohio State.........11-1-0.....8,996....2/2 43..1993 Notre Dame.........11-1-0.....8,972....2/2 44..1997 Florida State......11-1-0.....8,958....3/3 45..1987 Oklahoma...........11-1-0.....8,945....3/3 46..1988 Florida State......11-1-0.....8,938....3/3 47..2002 Georgia............13-1-0.....8,930....3/3 48..1993 Auburn.............11-0-0.....8,929....4/- 49..1995 Tennessee..........11-1-0.....8,925....3/2 50..2001 Oregon.............11-1-0.....8,881....2/2 51..2000 Washington.........11-1-0.....8,873....3/3 52..1994 Florida State......10-1-1.....8,808....4/5 53..2000 Florida State......11-2-0.....8,732....5/4 54..2001 Florida............10-2-0.....8,675....3/3 55..2000 Oregon State.......11-1-0.....8,655....4/5 56..2000 Virginia Tech......11-1-0.....8,601....6/6 57..2004 Utah...............12-0-0.....8,563....4/5 58..1994 Alabama............12-1-0.....8,511....5/4 59..1994 Colorado...........11-1-0.....8,507....3/3 60..1992 Notre Dame.........10-1-1.....8,498....4/4 RK YEAR TEAM W-L-T POINTS AP/COA 61..1999 Virginia Tech......11-1-0.....8,463....2/3 62..1998 Florida State......11-2-0.....8,417....3/3 63..2001 Tennessee..........11-2-0.....8,398....4/4 64..1986 Arizona State......10-1-1.....8,363....4/5 65..2004 Texas..............11-1-0.....8,359....5/4 66..1997 Florida............10-2-0.....8,352....4/6 67..2002 Oklahoma...........12-2-0.....8,251....5/5 68..1996 Arizona State......11-1-0.....8,222....4/4 69..2003 Oklahoma...........12-2-0.....8,193....3/3 70..1998 Wisconsin..........11-1-0.....8,173....6/5 71..1993 Nebraska...........11-1-0.....8,100....3/3 72..1989 Tennessee..........11-1-0.....8,056....5/5 73..1989 Florida State......10-2-0.....8,045....3/2 74..1993 Florida............11-2-0.....8,034....5/4 75..1987 Syracuse...........11-0-1.....8,024....4/4 76..1999 Michigan...........10-2-0.....7,988....5/5 77..1997 Tennessee..........11-2-0.....7,980....7/8 78..1990 Washington.........10-2-0.....7,955....5/5 79..1991 Florida State......11-2-0.....7,919....4/4 80..1990 Florida State......10-2-0.....7,818....4/4 RK YEAR TEAM W-L-T POINTS AP/COA 81..1995 Colorado...........10-2-0.....7,792....5/4 82..1991 Alabama............11-1-0.....7,763....5/5 83..1996 Nebraska...........11-2-0.....7,734....6/6 84..1989 Colorado...........11-1-0.....7,726....4/4 85..1988 Southern Cal.......10-2-0.....7,726....7/9 86..1999 Marshall...........13-0-0.....7,703...10/10 87..1987 Auburn..............9-1-2.....7,671....7/7 88..1990 Clemson............10-2-0.....7,670....9/9 89..1999 Michigan State.....10-2-0.....7,643....7/7 90..2003 Ohio State.........11-2-0.....7,591....4/4 91..2003 Miami (Oh.)........13-1-0.....7,588...10/12 92..2001 Nebraska...........11-2-0.....7,570....8/7 93..1995 Ohio State.........11-2-0.....7,543....6/8 94..1999 Kansas State.......11-1-0.....7,521....6/6 95..1998 Florida............10-2-0.....7,508....5/6