Parent DirectoryI use all NCAA Div I-A scores. Games vs I-AA or lower are adjusted using historical numbers developed over time. Losses to lower division opponents are penalizes heavily, while victories don't help much, even when the maximum margin of victory (MOV) is achieved.
For an individual team's ranking I use: Margin of Victory with a ceiling of 21 (i.e. any victory by 21 or more points is adjusted to a 21-pt MOV & any loss by 21 or more is adjusted to a -21 MOV). Overtime wins/Losses are adjusted to a 1/-1 MOV. Recent games are weighted more heavily than games farther in the past. A team gets points for a win (not in O.T.) & negative pts for a loss. There are bonuses built in for scoring & pts allowed. Scoring over 40 or allowing less than 12 triggers a bonus, while allowing 30+ or scoring less than 18 triggers negative bonus pts. Strength of schedule (SOS) is based on the average power rating (PR) of your opponents (recent games weighted more heavily here as well)--65%, the average PR of your opponents' opponents--23%, & the average PR of your opponents' opponents' opponents--12%. Bonus SOS pts can be gained by playing teams ranked in my top 20 with further bonuses for beating them. Conversely negative bonuses can happen by playing teams ranked 75 or worse, with further negative pts for losses to those teams. Opponents' offensive and defensive PRs are figured in as well as how a team did relative to those rankings. For example if FSU plays Duke, Duke has a poor defensive PR, & FSU manages to score say 24 pts, or something below the expected value, they get downgraded for that result. Or, if they gave up 31 pts to a weak offensive Duke team they would be downgraded. Scoring 30 on Oklahoma, or giving up 14 to Florida would upgrade a team's result for that week. A team's overall offensive/defensive balance is figured into the overall PR (i.e. if Miami is #1 on offense--my PRs--& #3 on D they would have a low balance score, which would upgrade their overall standing. Pythagorean (a reflection of what a team's W-L record "should" be) rankings are also figured in at the end. I would like to figure in yardage/ydg allowed, but haven't wrapped my brain around how to do it, nor have I found a site that gives the game totals in a easy-to-use manner (ydg is used in the NFL ranks because the sample size is more manageable). I use MS Access and SPSS to accomplish all of this.
I do this for the NFL too, as well as the NHL & college hockey, and have a system for predicting performance for individual players for fantasy football purposes.
Thomas Benson / Tbenson@elderhostel.org