John Coffey's College Football Rankings

home http://sites.google.com/site/coffeyratings/

college (fbs) ratings http://sites.google.com/site/coffeyratings/college-fbs-ratings

nfl ratings/predictions http://sites.google.com/site/coffeyratings/nfl-ratings-predictions

system description http://sites.google.com/site/coffeyratings/description

My system was developed as a hobby and out of the love of the game of major American college football. The ratings are not based on sophisticated statistical formulation. However, the mathematical model is fairly involved and is unbiased.

Ratings are based on:

1. Relative scoring margins (margins of a team compared with its opponent's margins)
2. Winning percentage
3. Opponent's winning percentages
4. Strength of schedule which is based of quality of opponents, opponents' opponents, etc.

Since the model does not use information from previous seasons, the rankings become more meaningful and less variable as the season progresses. The ratings represent a team's scoring potential at a neutral site, therefore predictions based on the power ratings can be obtained by comparing two team's ratings and applying a home field advantage. I believe that 3.5 points is a good estimate for home field advantage for major college football.

My model repeatedly recalculates the ratings until they stabilize, and automatically considers strength of opposition to an infinite depth.

Enjoy the game - questions or comments may be directed to islandhi@otelco.net

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