Joe Kasulis' Football Rankings

Enhanced Spread Projections (ESP) is a Predictive system for NFL and Canadian (CFL) football. Its aim is to prognosticate the results of upcoming games. ESP is a Sequential system. The ratings are calculated starting with the the prior week's ratings. The system is weighted, where the next week counts more in the compilation of a team's rating than the previous week. The information considered includes win/loss/tie plus the score, home field advantage, strength of schedule and some ESP Factors. When two games have the same margin of victory (MOV), a low scoring contest impacts the ratings more than a high scoring game. e.g. A 20-10 victory is a greater accomplishment than a 40-30 win. Runaway MOVs are collapsed. ESP uses the Median where other systems would use the Average. A significant feature of ESP is its Trend Analysis. Ratings have a greater upward or downward movement when a team's performance is on a streak. Last year's Final Ratings are updated for the start of this season by an unique method of using information from the Pre-season games.


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Joe Kasulis / kasulisjoecarol at msn dot com