Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2008 22:12:43 +0000 From: Steve Wrathell Subject: CPA Rkgs/CPA Retrodiction Rkgs-NFL 1/20/08 CPA RANKINGS - NFL (TM) CPA RETRODICTION RANKINGS - NFL (TM) (c) 2008 Steven Wrathell, CPA, PC I'm sorry this is out so late again. But the priority is to be sure that W-2's & 1099's, etc. get out by 1-31-2008. Computer football Power rankings designed for Accuracy (TM) For these systems' descriptions & links to other CPA Rankings pages & other links, such as D Wilson's RSFC, K Massey's Comparisons, T Beck's Prediction Tracker, the GPI, & C Stassen's Preseason pages, go to my home/description page at: http://homepages.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/rate/wrathell.html CPA RANKINGS (TM): A victory-margin ranking system CPA RETRODICTION RANKINGS (TM): A non-victory-margin ranking system If you would like to receive e-mail's (BCC) of this NFL page, send me an e-mail and I will add you to my e-mailing list. Doing so will mean you will get this info as soon as it is possible. Your e-address will be kept confidential. If you are on my list, but you are not getting the page, have you changed e-mail accounts? Is your e-mail account full? swrathell@yahoo.com or swrathell@hotmail.com * * * * * * * Shalom Ministries, in the Detroit-area, is working on bringing unity between African-American Christians and the Jewish people. Pastor John Denson and the Shalom Ministries also bring the good news of the Messiah to the Jewish people If you wish to contact them or to help out financially, they can be reached at SHALOM MINISTRIES P O BOX 19695 DETROIT MI 48219 Check out their web site at: http://www.ShalomMinistry.com/ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + |********================ |********================ Remember 9/11/2001 and give respect |********================ to every American fire fighter, police |********================ officer, and armed forces member. |======================== |======================== GOD BLESS AMERICA! |======================== I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America, and to the republic for which it stands, one nation UNDER GOD, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all. + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Subjective opinion polls are designed for fans who have opinions. Objective computer rankings are designed for fans who also passed math. + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + You asked for it: you got it! Per requests, for the NFL page, at the end, there is an alphabetical listing of the teams with their ratings and HFA's per both systems, side-by-side. ********************************************************** CPA Rankings and CPA Retrodiction Rankings have won awards and honorable mentions in different categories in the Prediction Tracker Awards. Both systems did well in multiple categories in the second half of the 2006 season. CPA Rankings-NFL was the 2001 P T Award winner for BOTH Best Overall Predictive and Best Overall Retrodictive Systems! See all of the results at Todd Beck's web site. ********************************************************** PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS See my special unbiased election section below the rankings! ********************************************************** Week 20 Recap / pre-Super Bowl Comments New England stayed unbeaten as they topped San Diego by 9 points. Brady had 2 TD passes. The cold Green Bay weather is supposed to guarantee Packer victories, but the road-loving Giants turned out to also like the cold and Eli Manning led NY to a Super Bowl. Let's see if he can match his brother Peyton by winning one, too. The Patriots can go 19-0 by besting the Giants. The 1972-73 Dolphins went 17-0, including a Super Bowl victory, but their schedule had 2 fewer games in the regular season, while they played 2 more exhibition games back then. Neither record would be superior to me, but Miami fans are hoping New England finishes 18-1. I think Tom Brady's ankle problem is overrated -- he should be fine. Some of the Giants have the flu. The Pats beat the Giants in week 17 when the teams should have been resting starters, but chose to go all out as NY wanted to stop the win streak. ********************************************************** Here are the calcs on my picks: No HFA's are applicable for the Super Bowl. Favored Team --------- U'dog Team ----------- -CPA- cpa R New England Patriots.. N Y Giants ........... 9.56 7.02 CPA RANKINGS - NFL (TM) NFL victory margins are capped at 30 points for the whole season. NFL teams are not generally expected to be favored by more than 30 points for a game. Note that rating changes also occur due to prior opponents' performances, etc. Picks, YTD: 178 W, 88 L, .669 straight up Rankings and ratings thru 1/20/2008 Rank -------- Team -------- Dvsn Rat'g *HFA* W L The Super Bowlers: 1 New England Patriots.. A E 99.00 0.95 18 0 6 N Y Giants ........... N E 89.44 -2.07 13 6 Teams not in the Super Bowl: 2 Indianapolis Colts ... A S 93.55 0.14 13 4 3 Green Bay Packers .... N N 91.18 2.51 14 4 4 Dallas Cowboys ....... N E 91.07 0.98 13 4 5 San Diego Chargers ... A W 89.74 1.59 13 6 7 Jacksonville Jags .... A S 89.12 2.19 12 6 8 Pittsburgh Steelers .. A N 87.87 2.53 10 7 9 Philadelphia Eagles .. N E 87.23 -1.33 8 8 10 Washington Redskins .. N E 86.43 1.54 9 8 11 Minnesota Vikings .... N N 86.26 2.27 8 8 12 Seattle Seahawks ..... N W 85.52 4.04 11 7 13 Tampa Bay Bucs ....... N S 83.71 2.48 9 8 14 Chicago Bears ........ N N 83.56 0.61 7 9 15 Tennessee Titans ..... A S 83.06 0.61 10 7 16 Houston Texans ....... A S 82.52 4.45 8 8 17 Cleveland Browns ..... A N 81.84 1.33 10 6 18 New Orleans Saints ... N S 80.65 -1.02 7 9 19 Cincinnati Bengals ... A N 80.50 1.95 7 9 20 Arizona Cardinals .... N W 79.57 1.90 8 8 21 Detroit Lions ........ N N 79.17 5.77 7 9 22 Buffalo Bills ........ A E 78.92 1.11 7 9 23 Denver Broncos ....... A W 78.82 3.65 7 9 24 N Y Jets ............. A E 78.43 0.21 4 12 25 Carolina Panthers .... N S 77.32 -1.47 7 9 26 Kansas City Chiefs ... A W 76.89 0.50 4 12 27 Oakland Raiders ...... A W 76.65 1.07 4 12 28 Baltimore Ravens ..... A N 76.00 3.51 5 11 29 Miami Dolphins ....... A E 73.87 -1.56 1 15 30 Atlanta Falcons ...... N S 72.94 0.68 4 12 31 San Francisco 49ers .. N W 71.76 1.07 5 11 32 St Louis Rams ........ N W 70.45 2.07 3 13 C.P.A. RETRODICTION RANKINGS - N F L (TM) See my description page regarding the CPA Retrodiction Rankings. Note that some differences in methodology exist between the NCAA and NFL systems. HFA's differ from CPA Rankings, are not used in calculating these rankings, but are to be used in calculating predictions from this system. Note that this is primarily a retrodictive system, not a predictive one. Yes, it's intended that CPA Retro's HFA's are all ZERO. Picks, YTD: 179 W, 87 L, .673 straight up Rankings and ratings thru 1/20/2008 Rank -------- Team -------- Dvsn Rat'g *HFA* W L The Super Bowlers: 1 New England Patriots.. A E 99.00 0.00 18 0 2 N Y Giants ........... N E 91.98 0.00 13 6 Teams not in the Super Bowl: 3 Green Bay Packers .... N N 91.68 0.00 14 4 4 San Diego Chargers ... A W 88.81 0.00 13 6 5 Dallas Cowboys ....... N E 88.65 0.00 13 4 6 Indianapolis Colts ... A S 88.40 0.00 13 4 7 Jacksonville Jags .... A S 88.18 0.00 12 6 8 Pittsburgh Steelers .. A N 86.28 0.00 10 7 9 Cleveland Browns ..... A N 85.49 0.00 10 6 10 Seattle Seahawks ..... N W 85.20 0.00 11 7 11 Tampa Bay Bucs ....... N S 84.21 0.00 9 8 12 Tennessee Titans ..... A S 84.17 0.00 10 7 13 Washington Redskins .. N E 83.93 0.00 9 8 14 Philadelphia Eagles .. N E 83.50 0.00 8 8 15 Minnesota Vikings .... N N 83.13 0.00 8 8 16 Houston Texans ....... A S 82.46 0.00 8 8 17 New Orleans Saints ... N S 81.75 0.00 7 9 18 Arizona Cardinals .... N W 81.58 0.00 8 8 19 Detroit Lions ........ N N 81.49 0.00 7 9 20 Cincinnati Bengals ... A N 81.15 0.00 7 9 21 Chicago Bears ........ N N 80.05 0.00 7 9 22 Carolina Panthers .... N S 79.42 0.00 7 9 23 Denver Broncos ....... A W 79.22 0.00 7 9 24 Buffalo Bills ........ A E 78.30 0.00 7 9 25 Baltimore Ravens ..... A N 77.60 0.00 5 11 26 San Francisco 49ers .. N W 77.06 0.00 5 11 27 N Y Jets ............. A E 76.87 0.00 4 12 28 Kansas City Chiefs ... A W 76.53 0.00 4 12 29 Oakland Raiders ...... A W 75.35 0.00 4 12 30 St Louis Rams ........ N W 74.74 0.00 3 13 31 Atlanta Falcons ...... N S 74.47 0.00 4 12 32 Miami Dolphins ....... A E 72.35 0.00 1 15 ALPHABETICAL LISTING: "CPA" = CPA Rankings / "cpR" = CPA Retrodiction Rankings .... .................. CPA cpR CPA cpR Dvsn -------- Team -------- Rat'g Rat'g HFA HFA N W Arizona Cardinals .... 79.57 81.58 1.90 0.00 N S Atlanta Falcons ...... 72.94 74.47 0.68 0.00 A N Baltimore Ravens ..... 76.00 77.60 3.51 0.00 A E Buffalo Bills ........ 78.92 78.30 1.11 0.00 N S Carolina Panthers .... 77.32 79.42 -1.47 0.00 N N Chicago Bears ........ 83.56 80.05 0.61 0.00 A N Cincinnati Bengals ... 80.50 81.15 1.95 0.00 A N Cleveland Browns ..... 81.84 85.49 1.33 0.00 N E Dallas Cowboys ....... 91.07 88.65 0.98 0.00 A W Denver Broncos ....... 78.82 79.22 3.65 0.00 N N Detroit Lions ........ 79.17 81.49 5.77 0.00 N N Green Bay Packers .... 91.18 91.68 2.51 0.00 A S Houston Texans ....... 82.52 82.46 4.45 0.00 A S Indianapolis Colts ... 93.55 88.40 0.14 0.00 A S Jacksonville Jags .... 89.12 88.18 2.19 0.00 A W Kansas City Chiefs ... 76.89 76.53 0.50 0.00 A E Miami Dolphins ....... 73.87 72.35 -1.56 0.00 N N Minnesota Vikings .... 86.26 83.13 2.27 0.00 N E N Y Giants ........... 89.44 91.98 -2.07 0.00 A E N Y Jets ............. 78.43 76.87 0.21 0.00 A E New England Patriots.. 99.00 99.00 0.95 0.00 N S New Orleans Saints ... 80.65 81.75 -1.02 0.00 A W Oakland Raiders ...... 76.65 75.35 1.07 0.00 N E Philadelphia Eagles .. 87.23 83.50 -1.33 0.00 A N Pittsburgh Steelers .. 87.87 86.28 2.53 0.00 A W San Diego Chargers ... 89.74 88.81 1.59 0.00 N W San Francisco 49ers .. 71.76 77.06 1.07 0.00 N W Seattle Seahawks ..... 85.52 85.20 4.04 0.00 N W St Louis Rams ........ 70.45 74.74 2.07 0.00 N S Tampa Bay Bucs ....... 83.71 84.21 2.48 0.00 A S Tennessee Titans ..... 83.06 84.17 0.61 0.00 N E Washington Redskins .. 86.43 83.93 1.54 0.00 2008 PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS (c) 2008 Steven Wrathell, CPA, PC THE REAL ELECTION RESULTS: THE DELEGATE RACE! It doesn't matter who wins the popular vote in the primaries and caucuses, all that counts is who wins the delegates. At this point, the narrowing down process is primarily complete. For the Democrats, what was a 3-person race is now down to 2: Obama & Clinton. Edwards dropped out. For the GOP, it's now a race between McCain & Romney. Huckabee is still in the hunt, but he has been falling back. Giuiliani, who may have been considered a favorite several months ago, had financial problems, as did most of the other Republicans, so he concentrated on Florida. By doing so, he performed poorly in earlier states which scared off his Florida supporters who considered him to be out of the hunt. The former NYC mayor has also dropped his White House bid. Next is Maine, 2/01/2008. Then 22 states vote in Super Tuesday, 2/05/2008, which will end it all unless it's split evenly among the leaders. There are states voting after 2/05, but it's not likely their votes will matter. The Dems intend to deny Michigan & Florida voters their right to be represented. Hillary won FL & MI, so it's in her interest to have those delegates reinstated. To see the state-by-state delegate totals, go to: http://content.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/results-all.aspx GREAT RESOURCE FOR RESEARCHING ALL OF THE CANDIDATES: I found a web site with brief descriptions of the presidential candidates' view (of both parties) on the major issues. Please take a look at these. To look up their view by an issue to see where each candidate stands, near the upper left section of the page, under "RELIGION & POLITICS '08; Presidential Candidates," click on "Compare on issues..." then choose among abortion, death penalty, education, etc. To look at a page for just one candidate to see where he/she stands on each of those issues, near the upper right of the page, put your cursor over "View Democrats" or "View Republicans" and click on a candidate. I hope these will be good resources in aiding your informed votes. This site seems to be quite objective in its presentation of the candidates views. http://pewforum.org/religion08/ If you would like to know more about the issues of abortion, stem cell research, etc., the following site has some good info on these. Click on a topic under "Issues" near the upper left corner of the page: http://www.rtl.org/ WHO MATCHES YOUR VIEWS? With all of the candidates out there in both parties, which one best correlates to YOUR views? It's not a precise measurement, but you can go to a web site where you choose which views are yours for multiple topics and find out how each candidate scores on matching your views. You'll find this site useful whether you're a Democrat or Republican. This may surprise my long-term readers, but the GOP candidates all scored higher with me than did the Dems. What a shocker. Go to: http://www.wqad.com/Global/link.asp?L=259460 Share the above with your friends! Don't forget to vote! - Steve