NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Retrodictives

Jay Coleman's and Jeff Sagarin's systems are a couple of the very most retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.

The Predictives

Edward Kambour's and Ray Waits's systems are a couple of the most predictive, meaning they best predicted which of any two teams would emerge victorious.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. He also increased the Superlist last season to include all the 1-A teams. Once in a while he even makes a suggestion. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me).

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Saturday, November 21, 2009 (1 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Boise St        100.000    1.000    1.0     1     1    1    1
   2 Texas            99.000    2.000    2.0     1     1    1    0
   3 Alabama          98.000    3.000    3.0     1     1    1    0
   4 Oregon           97.000    4.000    4.0     1     1    1    0
   5 TCU              96.000    5.000    5.0     1     1    1    0
   6 Florida          95.000    6.000    6.0     1     1    0    0
   7 Georgia Tech     94.000    7.000    7.0     1     1    0    0
   8 Cincinnati       94.000    7.000    7.0     1     1    0    0
   9 Clemson          92.000    9.000    9.0     1     1    0    0
  10 Pittsburgh       91.000   10.000   10.0     1     1    0    0
  11 USC              90.000   11.000   11.0     1     0    0    0
  12 Ohio St          89.000   12.000   12.0     1     0    0    0
  13 Oregon St        89.000   12.000   12.0     1     0    0    0
  14 California       87.000   14.000   14.0     1     0    0    0
  15 Iowa             86.000   15.000   15.0     1     0    0    0
  16 Penn St          85.000   16.000   16.0     1     0    0    0
  17 Arizona          85.000   16.000   16.0     1     0    0    0
  18 North Carolina   83.000   18.000   18.0     1     0    0    0
  19 Virginia Tech    82.000   19.000   19.0     1     0    0    0
  20 Houston          81.000   20.000   20.0     1     0    0    0
  21 Oklahoma St      80.000   21.000   21.0     1     0    0    0
  22 Texas Tech       79.000   22.000   22.0     1     0    0    0
  23 Nebraska         78.000   23.000   23.0     1     0    0    0
  24 Miami FL         77.000   24.000   24.0     1     0    0    0
  25 Stanford         76.000   25.000   25.0     1     0    0    0
  26 Rutgers          75.000   26.000   26.0     1     0    0    0
  27 UCLA             74.000   27.000   27.0     1     0    0    0
  28 Mississippi      73.000   28.000   28.0     1     0    0    0
  29 LSU              72.000   29.000   29.0     1     0    0    0
  30 Kentucky         71.000   30.000   30.0     1     0    0    0
  31 Tennessee        71.000   30.000   30.0     1     0    0    0
  32 Georgia          69.000   32.000   32.0     0     0    0    0
  33 Arkansas         68.000   33.000   33.0     0     0    0    0
  34 Auburn           67.000   34.000   34.0     0     0    0    0
  35 South Florida    67.000   34.000   34.0     0     0    0    0
  36 West Virginia    65.000   36.000   36.0     0     0    0    0
  37 Connecticut      64.000   37.000   37.0     0     0    0    0
  38 Temple           63.000   38.000   38.0     0     0    0    0
  39 Navy             62.000   39.000   39.0     0     0    0    0
  40 Missouri         61.000   40.000   40.0     0     0    0    0
  41 Notre Dame       61.000   40.000   40.0     0     0    0    0
  42 Boston College   59.000   42.000   42.0     0     0    0    0
  43 Nevada           59.000   42.000   42.0     0     0    0    0
  44 Florida St       57.000   44.000   44.0     0     0    0    0
  45 BYU              56.000   45.000   45.0     0     0    0    0
  46 Oklahoma         55.000   46.000   46.0     0     0    0    0
  47 Wisconsin        54.000   47.000   47.0     0     0    0    0
  48 Mississippi St   53.000   48.000   48.0     0     0    0    0
  49 South Carolina   52.000   49.000   49.0     0     0    0    0
  50 Arizona St       51.000   50.000   50.0     0     0    0    0
  51 Utah             50.000   51.000   51.0     0     0    0    0
  52 C Michigan       49.000   52.000   52.0     0     0    0    0
  53 Fresno St        48.000   53.000   53.0     0     0    0    0
  54 Minnesota        48.000   53.000   53.0     0     0    0    0
  55 Michigan St      46.000   55.000   55.0     0     0    0    0
  56 Washington       45.000   56.000   56.0     0     0    0    0
  57 East Carolina    44.000   57.000   57.0     0     0    0    0
  58 Kansas St        43.000   58.000   58.0     0     0    0    0
  59 Texas A&M        42.000   59.000   59.0     0     0    0    0
  60 Kansas           42.000   59.000   59.0     0     0    0    0
  61 Louisville       42.000   59.000   59.0     0     0    0    0
  62 Southern Miss    39.000   62.000   62.0     0     0    0    0
  63 Iowa St          39.000   62.000   62.0     0     0    0    0
  64 Duke             39.000   62.000   62.0     0     0    0    0
  65 Air Force        36.000   65.000   65.0     0     0    0    0
  66 Virginia         36.000   65.000   65.0     0     0    0    0
  67 Baylor           36.000   65.000   65.0     0     0    0    0
  68 Wake Forest      33.000   68.000   68.0     0     0    0    0
  69 Syracuse         32.000   69.000   69.0     0     0    0    0
  70 Northwestern     31.000   70.000   70.0     0     0    0    0
  71 Kent             30.000   71.000   71.0     0     0    0    0
  72 Idaho            29.000   72.000   72.0     0     0    0    0
  73 Ohio             29.000   72.000   72.0     0     0    0    0
  74 N Illinois       27.000   74.000   74.0     0     0    0    0
  75 Purdue           26.000   75.000   75.0     0     0    0    0
  76 Indiana          25.000   76.000   76.0     0     0    0    0
  77 Illinois         24.000   77.000   77.0     0     0    0    0
  78 Michigan         23.000   78.000   78.0     0     0    0    0
  79 UCF              22.000   79.000   79.0     0     0    0    0
  80 NC State         22.000   79.000   79.0     0     0    0    0
  81 Louisiana Tech   20.000   81.000   81.0     0     0    0    0
  82 Marshall         19.000   82.000   82.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Bowling Green    18.000   83.000   83.0     0     0    0    0
  84 Troy             17.000   84.000   84.0     0     0    0    0
  85 Middle Tenn St   16.000   85.000   85.0     0     0    0    0
  86 Army             15.000   86.000   86.0     0     0    0    0
  87 Vanderbilt       14.000   87.000   87.0     0     0    0    0
  88 W Michigan       13.000   88.000   88.0     0     0    0    0
  89 Buffalo          12.000   89.000   89.0     0     0    0    0
  90 Maryland         11.000   90.000   90.0     0     0    0    0
  91 Miami OH         10.000   91.000   91.0     0     0    0    0
  92 Toledo            9.000   92.000   92.0     0     0    0    0
  93 Colorado          8.000   93.000   93.0     0     0    0    0
  94 Wyoming           7.000   94.000   94.0     0     0    0    0
  95 UNLV              6.000   95.000   95.0     0     0    0    0
  96 San Diego St      6.000   95.000   95.0     0     0    0    0
  97 Hawaii            4.000   97.000   97.0     0     0    0    0
  98 Washington St     3.000   98.000   98.0     0     0    0    0
  99 SMU               2.000   99.000   99.0     0     0    0    0
 100 Tulsa             1.000  100.000  100.0     0     0    0    0
 101 UAB               0.000  101.000  101.0     0     0    0    0
 102 FL Atlantic      -1.000  102.000  102.0     0     0    0    0
 103 ULL              -2.000  103.000  103.0     0     0    0    0
 104 ULM              -3.000  104.000  104.0     0     0    0    0
 105 Arkansas St      -4.000  105.000  105.0     0     0    0    0
 106 Florida Intl     -5.000  106.000  106.0     0     0    0    0
 107 North Texas      -6.000  107.000  107.0     0     0    0    0
 108 Ball St          -7.000  108.000  108.0     0     0    0    0
 109 Akron            -8.000  109.000  109.0     0     0    0    0
 110 Memphis          -9.000  110.000  110.0     0     0    0    0
 111 Rice            -10.000  111.000  111.0     0     0    0    0
 112 Tulane          -11.000  112.000  112.0     0     0    0    0
 113 UTEP            -12.000  113.000  113.0     0     0    0    0
 114 New Mexico St   -13.000  114.000  114.0     0     0    0    0
 115 Utah St         -14.000  115.000  115.0     0     0    0    0
 116 New Mexico      -14.000  115.000  115.0     0     0    0    0
 117 Colorado St     -16.000  117.000  117.0     0     0    0    0
 118 San Jose St     -16.000  117.000  117.0     0     0    0    0
 119 W Kentucky      -18.000  119.000  119.0     0     0    0    0
 120 E Michigan      -19.000  120.000  120.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

Jeff Sagarin's ELO Ratings Data missing
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt09.htm

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings Data missing
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings Data missing
http://www.kambour.net/football.html

Massey Ratings Data missing
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T. Data missing
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

Nutshell Sports Data missing
http://www.nutshellsports.com/ncaafb.html

David Wilson's Performance Ratings Data missing
http://homepages.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/byrate.html

2009 College Football Data missing
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://www.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/rate/index.html

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://www.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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