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Waits/Wilson/Huckaby
Nutshell Sports Superlist
(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.)
The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the
Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality
Predictives.
The Five Core Systems
James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have
contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are
reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with
us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful
maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years.
They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I
check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team
was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)
The Retrodictives
Jay Coleman's and Bruce Payne's systems are a couple of the very most
retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the
winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.
The Predictives
This season Edward Kambour and Nutshell Sports once again represent
the predictive ratings. These were chosen by tallying up four
categories of awards for the past ten seasons on Todd Beck's
Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). The top five systems are in the
same order as last season, though most had less points (that means
they had better win some awards): 1) Edward Kambour, 2) Nutshell
Sports, 3) StatFox, 4) Sagarin Overall, 5) Pigskin. The totals were
from four categories - straight up for season, straight up for second
half, against the spread for season, and against the spread for
second half. Last season's winner in each category received ten
points, the previous season's winner received nine, and so on down to
the tenth season back. Edward Kambour also received the most awards
in these categories at six.
The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings.
He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name
is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I
only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to
include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just
some guy that thought up the idea (me!).
The Superlist won its second Todd Beck Prediction Tracker award last
season, both were for most retrodictive wins.
This season's contributors currently are:
Update ratings.
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The idea behind the Superlist is to get
nine great minds together
to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.
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The actual positions of the teams in the
various ratings are not revealed here. For
that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose
of the Superlist is to
promote the various ratings around the Internet.
The Superlist
The Superlist
Monday, January 9, 2012 (8 systems)
You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.
The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.
In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.
If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance. If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.
rank team rating average median top30 top10 top5 top1
1 Alabama 99.812 1.375 1.0 8 8 8 5
2 LSU 99.188 1.625 2.0 8 8 8 3
3 Oklahoma St 97.625 3.750 3.0 8 8 7 0
4 Arkansas 96.250 5.000 4.5 8 8 7 0
5 Oregon 95.500 5.500 5.5 8 8 4 0
6 Stanford 94.062 6.875 7.0 8 7 2 0
7 Oklahoma 92.875 8.250 8.0 8 7 1 0
8 South Carolina 92.188 8.625 9.0 8 7 0 0
9 Boise St 91.875 9.250 9.0 8 5 1 0
10 Wisconsin 89.062 12.375 11.5 8 2 0 0
11 USC 88.688 11.625 13.0 8 3 1 0
12 Baylor 88.500 13.000 12.0 8 3 0 0
13 Houston 86.375 14.750 14.5 8 2 0 0
14 Kansas St 86.375 14.250 15.0 8 2 1 0
15 Michigan St 85.688 15.125 15.5 8 0 0 0
16 TCU 85.438 16.125 15.0 8 0 0 0
17 Michigan 84.938 17.125 15.0 7 1 0 0
18 Georgia 84.000 17.000 17.0 8 0 0 0
19 Texas 81.062 19.875 20.0 8 0 0 0
20 Auburn 78.312 22.875 22.5 7 0 0 0
21 Missouri 77.438 24.625 22.5 7 0 0 0
22 West Virginia 76.875 25.750 22.5 7 0 0 0
23 Texas A&M 76.562 24.875 24.0 7 0 0 0
24 Southern Miss 76.438 26.625 22.5 5 0 0 0
25 Virginia Tech 76.250 24.000 25.5 7 0 0 0
26 Nebraska 76.000 24.500 25.5 7 1 0 0
27 Clemson 73.875 28.250 26.0 6 0 0 0
28 Florida St 73.062 27.375 28.5 6 0 0 0
29 Penn St 71.625 29.750 29.0 6 0 0 0
30 Notre Dame 71.125 30.250 29.5 5 0 0 0
31 Florida 70.375 31.250 30.0 4 0 0 0
32 Mississippi St 70.312 30.375 31.0 4 0 0 0
33 Cincinnati 68.500 34.500 30.5 4 0 0 0
34 BYU 65.938 35.625 34.5 0 0 0 0
35 Tulsa 65.188 36.625 35.0 0 0 0 0
36 Rutgers 62.688 40.125 36.5 0 0 0 0
37 Iowa St 61.875 38.750 39.5 1 0 0 0
38 Utah 60.250 40.000 41.5 1 0 0 0
39 California 59.188 41.625 42.0 1 0 0 0
40 N Illinois 58.625 44.750 40.0 1 0 0 0
41 Washington 57.938 43.125 43.0 0 0 0 0
42 Iowa 56.875 43.750 44.5 1 0 0 0
43 Toledo 56.375 46.750 42.5 0 0 0 0
44 Georgia Tech 53.938 48.125 46.0 0 0 0 0
45 Louisiana Tech 52.125 47.750 50.0 0 0 0 0
46 North Carolina 51.812 49.375 49.0 0 0 0 0
47 Ohio St 51.500 49.500 49.5 0 0 0 0
48 Tennessee 51.500 50.500 48.5 0 0 0 0
49 SMU 51.125 52.750 47.0 0 0 0 0
50 Virginia 50.750 48.000 52.5 2 0 0 0
51 Vanderbilt 50.250 50.000 51.5 0 0 0 0
52 Texas Tech 49.438 51.125 52.0 0 0 0 0
53 NC State 49.062 54.875 49.0 0 0 0 0
54 Arizona St 47.625 53.250 53.5 0 0 0 0
55 Miami FL 47.438 52.625 54.5 0 0 0 0
56 Illinois 45.188 56.125 55.5 0 0 0 0
57 Louisville 45.000 56.000 56.0 0 0 0 0
58 Arkansas St 44.562 54.875 58.0 0 0 0 0
59 Temple 43.625 58.250 56.5 0 0 0 0
60 UCLA 42.812 56.375 60.0 0 0 0 0
61 Ohio 41.875 59.750 58.5 0 0 0 0
62 Purdue 40.500 58.500 62.5 0 0 0 0
63 Pittsburgh 36.250 63.000 66.5 0 0 0 0
64 Marshall 36.250 64.500 65.0 0 0 0 0
65 Northwestern 35.875 63.750 66.5 0 0 0 0
66 Nevada 34.312 66.375 67.0 0 0 0 0
67 San Diego St 33.312 67.875 67.5 0 0 0 0
68 Wake Forest 31.750 68.500 70.0 0 0 0 0
69 Kentucky 31.500 69.500 69.5 0 0 0 0
70 South Florida 30.938 68.625 71.5 0 0 0 0
71 Wyoming 30.438 70.125 71.0 0 0 0 0
72 ULL 30.250 69.000 72.5 0 0 0 0
73 W Michigan 28.438 73.125 72.0 0 0 0 0
74 Arizona 27.375 74.250 73.0 0 0 0 0
75 Connecticut 27.000 74.000 74.0 0 0 0 0
76 Air Force 26.125 74.750 75.0 0 0 0 0
77 Syracuse 23.688 77.125 77.5 0 0 0 0
78 Utah St 22.625 77.250 79.5 0 0 0 0
79 Navy 22.438 78.125 79.0 0 0 0 0
80 Oregon St 20.188 81.125 80.5 0 0 0 0
81 W Kentucky 19.562 81.875 81.0 0 0 0 0
82 East Carolina 19.062 81.375 82.5 0 0 0 0
83 Ball St 17.438 83.625 83.5 0 0 0 0
84 UCF 16.000 85.500 84.5 0 0 0 0
85 Minnesota 15.750 86.500 84.0 0 0 0 0
86 Washington St 15.250 84.500 87.0 0 0 0 0
87 Boston College 14.562 84.875 88.0 0 0 0 0
88 Florida Intl 14.438 84.625 88.5 0 0 0 0
89 Kansas 13.875 84.750 89.5 0 0 0 0
90 Rice 12.562 88.875 88.0 0 0 0 0
91 Bowling Green 11.125 88.250 91.5 0 0 0 0
92 San Jose St 10.812 88.375 92.0 0 0 0 0
93 Colorado 8.125 91.750 94.0 0 0 0 0
94 Mississippi 7.938 93.125 93.0 0 0 0 0
95 Hawaii 6.188 94.125 95.5 0 0 0 0
96 UTEP 6.000 95.000 95.0 0 0 0 0
97 E Michigan 5.812 94.875 95.5 0 0 0 0
98 Kent 4.938 96.625 95.5 0 0 0 0
99 North Texas 3.312 97.875 97.5 0 0 0 0
100 Miami OH 2.438 99.125 98.0 0 0 0 0
101 Duke 2.375 96.250 101.0 0 0 0 0
102 Fresno St 1.750 98.500 100.0 0 0 0 0
103 Maryland -1.438 100.875 104.0 0 0 0 0
104 ULM -1.750 102.500 103.0 0 0 0 0
105 Army -2.250 102.000 104.5 0 0 0 0
106 New Mexico St -3.438 104.375 104.5 0 0 0 0
107 UAB -6.500 106.500 108.5 0 0 0 0
108 C Michigan -7.062 108.625 107.5 0 0 0 0
109 Troy -8.375 108.750 110.0 0 0 0 0
110 Buffalo -9.000 110.500 109.5 0 0 0 0
111 Colorado St -9.875 110.750 111.0 0 0 0 0
112 Idaho -10.688 111.375 112.0 0 0 0 0
113 Indiana -11.125 112.250 112.0 0 0 0 0
114 UNLV -11.188 110.375 114.0 0 0 0 0
115 Middle Tenn St -12.688 112.375 115.0 0 0 0 0
116 New Mexico -15.500 116.500 116.5 0 0 0 0
117 Memphis -16.062 117.125 117.0 0 0 0 0
118 Tulane -16.125 117.250 117.0 0 0 0 0
119 FL Atlantic -16.250 116.000 118.5 0 0 0 0
120 Akron -19.000 120.000 120.0 0 0 0 0
The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.
rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula. If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.
rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)
average = average ranking by the systems.
median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position. Examples:
4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
The systems included in the Superlist are:
Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm
Bruce Payne's Ratings
http://knology.net/~brucepayne/PayneRatings.htm
NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm
The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings Data missing
http://www.kambour.net/football.html
Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6
F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt
Nutshell Sports
http://www.nutshellsports.com/ncaafb.html
David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://homepages.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/byrate.html
2010 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm
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The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports
Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the
property
of Ray Waits and
David Wilson.
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:
http://www.nutshellsports.com/
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
_________________________________________
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.
Sports pages you just can't miss:
David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://www.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/rate/index.html
Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://www.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/
Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm
NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/
Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html
Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html
Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
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