NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Retrodictives

Jay Coleman's and Jeff Sagarin's systems are a couple of the very most retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.

The Predictives

Edward Kambour's and Ray Waits's systems are a couple of the most predictive, meaning they best predicted which of any two teams would emerge victorious.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. He also increased the Superlist last season to include all the 1-A teams. Once in a while he even makes a suggestion. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me).

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Sunday, November 1, 2009 (9 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Florida          98.833    2.333    2.0     9     9    8    2
   2 Texas            96.944    4.111    4.0     9     9    6    3
   3 Alabama          95.278    5.444    6.0     9     9    4    0
   4 Oregon           95.278    5.444    6.0     9     9    4    0
   5 Boise St         94.944    5.111    7.0     9     9    4    3
   6 Cincinnati       94.833    7.333    5.0     9     7    6    0
   7 TCU              94.722    6.556    6.0     9     8    4    0
   8 Iowa             93.889    7.222    7.0     9     8    3    1
   9 USC              91.500    9.000   10.0     9     5    1    0
  10 LSU              90.333   11.333   10.0     9     5    0    0
  11 Georgia Tech     89.389   12.222   11.0     9     4    0    0
  12 Penn St          89.167   11.667   12.0     9     2    0    0
  13 Pittsburgh       84.111   16.778   17.0     9     0    0    0
  14 California       83.444   18.111   17.0     8     1    1    0
  15 Arizona          82.833   20.333   16.0     7     0    0    0
  16 Ohio St          82.389   17.222   20.0     9     1    1    0
  17 Virginia Tech    81.722   19.556   19.0     9     0    0    0
  18 Miami FL         81.333   21.333   18.0     7     0    0    0
  19 Utah             80.167   23.667   18.0     8     0    0    0
  20 Oklahoma St      79.611   21.778   21.0     8     0    0    0
  21 Clemson          78.667   22.667   22.0     9     0    0    0
  22 Oregon St        78.389   24.222   21.0     8     0    0    0
  23 Houston          76.722   25.556   23.0     7     0    0    0
  24 Wisconsin        76.444   27.111   22.0     6     0    0    0
  25 Oklahoma         74.667   24.667   28.0     5     2    2    0
  26 South Florida    74.611   28.778   24.0     7     0    0    0
  27 Notre Dame       74.556   26.889   26.0     6     0    0    0
  28 Texas Tech       74.111   28.778   25.0     5     1    1    0
  29 BYU              71.000   30.000   30.0     6     0    0    0
  30 Auburn           70.889   32.222   28.0     7     0    0    0
  31 Tennessee        69.500   33.000   30.0     5     0    0    0
  32 Boston College   69.389   31.222   32.0     4     0    0    0
  33 West Virginia    67.611   34.778   32.0     2     0    0    0
  34 Georgia          66.111   34.778   35.0     2     0    0    0
  35 Stanford         65.722   36.556   34.0     1     0    0    0
  36 Rutgers          64.444   37.111   36.0     1     0    0    0
  37 Florida St       63.889   36.222   38.0     2     0    0    0
  38 Arkansas         63.556   36.889   38.0     3     0    0    0
  39 South Carolina   61.889   39.222   39.0     0     0    0    0
  40 Mississippi      61.278   38.444   41.0     2     1    0    0
  41 Fresno St        59.222   42.556   41.0     1     0    0    0
  42 C Michigan       56.889   43.222   45.0     2     0    0    0
  43 Minnesota        56.833   45.333   43.0     0     0    0    0
  44 Mississippi St   56.500   45.000   44.0     0     0    0    0
  45 Navy             55.389   43.222   48.0     1     0    0    0
  46 Kentucky         55.278   45.444   46.0     1     0    0    0
  47 Washington       55.167   47.667   44.0     2     0    0    0
  48 Nebraska         55.056   43.889   48.0     2     0    0    0
  49 North Carolina   54.333   46.333   47.0     0     0    0    0
  50 Missouri         52.833   47.333   49.0     1     0    0    0
  51 UCLA             49.944   50.111   52.0     0     0    0    0
  52 Texas A&M        48.056   51.889   54.0     0     0    0    0
  53 Michigan St      47.556   52.889   54.0     0     0    0    0
  54 Air Force        47.278   53.444   54.0     0     0    0    0
  55 Temple           46.611   55.778   53.0     0     0    0    0
  56 Arizona St       46.389   55.222   54.0     0     0    0    0
  57 Kansas           45.611   53.778   57.0     0     0    0    0
  58 Connecticut      44.111   55.778   58.0     0     0    0    0
  59 Duke             43.778   57.444   57.0     0     0    0    0
  60 Troy             43.500   60.000   55.0     0     0    0    0
  61 Wake Forest      41.222   59.556   60.0     0     0    0    0
  62 Iowa St          41.000   61.000   59.0     0     0    0    0
  63 Nevada           37.667   64.667   62.0     0     0    0    0
  64 Idaho            37.611   62.778   64.0     0     0    0    0
  65 Michigan         37.611   63.778   63.0     0     0    0    0
  66 Virginia         36.167   63.667   66.0     0     0    0    0
  67 Kansas St        35.111   64.778   67.0     0     0    0    0
  68 East Carolina    33.611   67.778   67.0     0     0    0    0
  69 Marshall         28.444   74.111   71.0     0     0    0    0
  70 N Illinois       28.389   72.222   73.0     0     0    0    0
  71 Purdue           28.167   73.667   72.0     0     0    0    0
  72 NC State         27.667   74.667   72.0     0     0    0    0
  73 SMU              27.389   73.222   74.0     0     0    0    0
  74 Southern Miss    26.167   74.667   75.0     0     0    0    0
  75 Northwestern     25.056   74.889   77.0     0     0    0    0
  76 Middle Tenn St   23.833   79.333   75.0     0     0    0    0
  77 Louisville       23.056   79.889   76.0     0     0    0    0
  78 Baylor           22.556   76.889   80.0     0     0    0    0
  79 Ohio             22.167   78.667   79.0     0     0    0    0
  80 Syracuse         20.167   78.667   83.0     0     0    0    0
  81 Bowling Green    19.611   80.778   82.0     0     0    0    0
  82 UCF              19.167   82.667   81.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Colorado St      18.222   83.556   82.0     0     0    0    0
  84 San Diego St     18.000   83.000   83.0     0     0    0    0
  85 Kent             17.667   83.667   83.0     0     0    0    0
  86 Indiana          16.500   83.000   86.0     0     0    0    0
  87 ULM              15.667   87.667   83.0     0     0    0    0
  88 Wyoming          15.278   85.444   86.0     0     0    0    0
  89 Maryland         12.833   89.333   87.0     0     0    0    0
  90 Colorado         12.111   87.778   90.0     0     0    0    0
  91 Tulsa            11.611   88.778   90.0     0     0    0    0
  92 Illinois         11.444   88.111   91.0     0     0    0    0
  93 UAB               9.333   92.333   91.0     0     0    0    0
  94 Louisiana Tech    8.444   93.111   92.0     0     0    0    0
  95 W Michigan        8.333   92.333   93.0     0     0    0    0
  96 UNLV              4.611   95.778   97.0     0     0    0    0
  97 UTEP              4.278   96.444   97.0     0     0    0    0
  98 Buffalo           4.167   96.667   97.0     0     0    0    0
  99 San Jose St       2.722   96.556  100.0     0     0    0    0
 100 Utah St           2.111   97.778  100.0     0     0    0    0
 101 Arkansas St       1.944   99.111   99.0     0     0    0    0
 102 Toledo            1.778   98.444  100.0     0     0    0    0
 103 FL Atlantic      -1.944  102.889  103.0     0     0    0    0
 104 Vanderbilt       -2.278  101.556  105.0     0     0    0    0
 105 Hawaii           -3.556  103.111  106.0     0     0    0    0
 106 Washington St    -4.056  103.111  107.0     0     0    0    0
 107 Army             -5.889  106.778  107.0     0     0    0    0
 108 ULL              -6.778  107.556  108.0     0     0    0    0
 109 Memphis          -7.722  108.444  109.0     0     0    0    0
 110 Miami OH         -8.000  108.000  110.0     0     0    0    0
 111 Florida Intl     -8.278  108.556  110.0     0     0    0    0
 112 Tulane           -9.722  110.444  111.0     0     0    0    0
 113 New Mexico St   -11.278  111.556  113.0     0     0    0    0
 114 Akron           -12.556  113.111  114.0     0     0    0    0
 115 North Texas     -12.889  113.778  114.0     0     0    0    0
 116 Ball St         -13.667  113.333  116.0     0     0    0    0
 117 New Mexico      -15.056  116.111  116.0     0     0    0    0
 118 E Michigan      -16.500  117.000  118.0     0     0    0    0
 119 Rice            -16.667  117.333  118.0     0     0    0    0
 120 W Kentucky      -18.889  119.778  120.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

Jeff Sagarin's ELO Ratings
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt09.htm

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings
http://www.kambour.net/football.html

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

Nutshell Sports
http://www.nutshellsports.com/ncaafb.html

David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://homepages.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/byrate.html

2009 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://www.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/rate/index.html

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://www.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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