The Superlist
The Superlist
Tuesday, January 4, 2005 (9 systems)
You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.
The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.
In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.
If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance. If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.
rank team rating average median top30 top10 top5 top1
1 USC 100.000 1.000 1.0 9 9 9 9
2 Auburn 98.778 2.444 2.0 9 9 9 0
3 Oklahoma 97.944 3.111 3.0 9 9 9 0
4 Utah 96.000 5.000 5.0 9 9 6 0
5 Texas 95.500 6.000 5.0 9 8 5 0
6 California 94.556 6.889 6.0 9 7 4 0
7 Louisville 94.389 7.222 6.0 9 8 2 0
8 Miami FL 92.667 8.667 8.0 9 7 0 0
9 Virginia Tech 91.889 9.222 9.0 9 7 0 0
10 Georgia 91.333 9.333 10.0 9 7 1 0
11 Iowa 89.778 11.444 11.0 9 3 0 0
12 Boise St 89.167 11.667 12.0 9 3 0 0
13 Arizona St 87.889 13.222 13.0 9 2 0 0
14 Florida St 86.056 14.889 15.0 9 0 0 0
15 Tennessee 86.056 14.889 15.0 9 2 0 0
16 LSU 85.278 15.444 16.0 9 0 0 0
17 Texas Tech 83.056 17.889 18.0 9 0 0 0
18 Michigan 82.278 18.444 19.0 9 0 0 0
19 Texas A&M 80.778 20.444 20.0 8 0 0 0
20 Oregon St 80.444 21.111 20.0 9 0 0 0
21 Virginia 80.333 20.333 21.0 9 0 0 0
22 Wisconsin 79.056 21.889 22.0 9 0 0 0
23 Ohio St 79.000 22.000 22.0 9 0 0 0
24 Purdue 75.667 25.667 25.0 7 0 0 0
25 Oklahoma St 74.500 27.000 26.0 7 0 0 0
26 Fresno St 74.000 27.000 27.0 7 0 0 0
27 Boston College 73.778 27.444 27.0 6 0 0 0
28 Florida 72.167 28.667 29.0 6 0 0 0
29 Georgia Tech 70.278 31.444 30.0 5 0 0 0
30 Colorado 68.222 32.556 33.0 4 0 0 0
31 Notre Dame 68.000 33.000 33.0 3 0 0 0
32 North Carolina 67.389 35.222 32.0 3 0 0 0
33 West Virginia 66.833 34.333 34.0 2 0 0 0
34 Clemson 64.500 37.000 36.0 0 0 0 0
35 UCLA 64.278 38.444 35.0 4 0 0 0
36 Navy 62.833 39.333 37.0 2 0 0 0
37 Pittsburgh 62.444 38.111 39.0 1 0 0 0
38 New Mexico 61.444 39.111 40.0 0 0 0 0
39 Texas-El Paso 61.167 40.667 39.0 1 0 0 0
40 Minnesota 60.889 39.222 41.0 1 0 0 0
41 Bowling Green 60.667 40.667 40.0 3 0 0 0
42 Arkansas 58.889 41.222 43.0 1 0 0 0
43 Iowa St 55.167 47.667 44.0 0 0 0 0
44 NC State 54.667 45.667 47.0 0 0 0 0
45 South Carolina 54.056 47.889 46.0 0 0 0 0
46 Connecticut 52.944 49.111 47.0 0 0 0 0
47 Northwestern 51.333 49.333 50.0 0 0 0 0
48 Alabama 49.389 51.222 52.0 1 0 0 0
49 Brigham Young 48.889 50.222 54.0 0 0 0 0
50 Stanford 48.778 52.444 52.0 0 0 0 0
51 Kansas 48.389 54.222 51.0 0 0 0 0
52 Cincinnati 47.778 51.444 55.0 0 0 0 0
53 Washington St 47.500 54.000 53.0 0 0 0 0
54 N Illinois 47.444 54.111 53.0 0 0 0 0
55 Memphis 47.167 53.667 54.0 0 0 0 0
56 Oregon 45.389 54.222 57.0 0 0 0 0
57 Wyoming 44.833 56.333 56.0 0 0 0 0
58 Syracuse 44.222 55.556 58.0 0 0 0 0
59 Southern Miss 43.944 57.111 57.0 0 0 0 0
60 Maryland 43.500 57.000 58.0 0 0 0 0
61 Louisiana Tech 40.556 60.889 60.0 0 0 0 0
62 Nebraska 39.500 62.000 61.0 0 0 0 0
63 Michigan St 38.944 62.111 62.0 0 0 0 0
64 Hawaii 38.556 62.889 62.0 0 0 0 0
65 Kansas St 37.444 63.111 64.0 0 0 0 0
66 Toledo 37.000 62.000 66.0 0 0 0 0
67 UAB 36.056 63.889 66.0 0 0 0 0
68 Missouri 35.000 65.000 67.0 0 0 0 0
69 Troy 33.833 66.333 68.0 0 0 0 0
70 Air Force 32.222 67.556 70.0 0 0 0 0
71 Miami OH 30.833 70.333 70.0 0 0 0 0
72 Wake Forest 30.167 69.667 72.0 0 0 0 0
73 Penn St 30.000 68.000 74.0 0 0 0 0
74 Arizona 27.889 73.222 73.0 0 0 0 0
75 Mississippi 27.778 73.444 73.0 0 0 0 0
76 TCU 26.889 74.222 74.0 0 0 0 0
77 Colorado St 26.556 72.889 76.0 0 0 0 0
78 Marshall 24.889 78.222 74.0 0 0 0 0
79 San Diego St 23.278 77.444 78.0 0 0 0 0
80 North Texas 22.667 78.667 78.0 0 0 0 0
81 Rutgers 20.444 81.111 80.0 0 0 0 0
82 New Mexico St 16.944 86.111 82.0 0 0 0 0
83 Baylor 16.389 84.222 85.0 0 0 0 0
84 Tulane 15.222 85.556 86.0 0 0 0 0
85 Indiana 13.722 86.556 88.0 0 0 0 0
86 Duke 13.667 87.667 87.0 0 0 0 0
87 South Florida 13.389 88.222 87.0 0 0 0 0
88 Houston 13.333 88.333 87.0 0 0 0 0
89 Mississippi St 12.389 90.222 87.0 0 0 0 0
90 Tulsa 10.889 91.222 89.0 0 0 0 0
91 Middle Tenn St 9.389 91.222 92.0 0 0 0 0
92 Illinois 9.167 91.667 92.0 0 0 0 0
93 Kent 6.611 95.778 93.0 0 0 0 0
94 Rice 6.222 95.556 94.0 0 0 0 0
95 Akron 5.611 91.778 99.0 0 0 0 0
96 UNLV 4.222 96.556 97.0 0 0 0 0
97 LA Monroe 4.167 95.667 98.0 0 0 0 0
98 Vanderbilt 4.000 96.000 98.0 0 0 0 0
99 Temple 2.778 98.444 98.0 0 0 0 0
100 Nevada 2.333 98.333 99.0 0 0 0 0
101 SMU 1.222 100.556 99.0 0 0 0 0
102 Kentucky 1.000 100.000 100.0 0 0 0 0
103 Washington -0.056 100.111 102.0 0 0 0 0
104 Ohio -1.389 103.778 101.0 0 0 0 0
105 LA Lafayette -1.389 102.778 102.0 0 0 0 0
106 Army -1.611 103.222 102.0 0 0 0 0
107 Utah St -3.389 104.778 104.0 0 0 0 0
108 Arkansas St -3.444 104.889 104.0 0 0 0 0
109 East Carolina -5.611 106.222 107.0 0 0 0 0
110 E Michigan -8.167 109.333 109.0 0 0 0 0
111 Idaho -8.722 110.444 109.0 0 0 0 0
112 San Jose St -9.444 110.889 110.0 0 0 0 0
113 C Michigan -10.167 110.333 112.0 0 0 0 0
114 Ball St -12.556 113.111 114.0 0 0 0 0
115 Buffalo -14.056 115.111 115.0 0 0 0 0
116 W Michigan -14.722 115.444 116.0 0 0 0 0
117 UCF -15.722 116.444 117.0 0 0 0 0
The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.
rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula. If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.
rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)
average = average ranking by the systems.
median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position. Examples:
4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
The systems included in the Superlist are:
The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings
http://www.geocities.com/kambour/football.html
Sorenson Sports Rankings
http://www.phys.utk.edu/sorensen/cfr/cfr/output/2003/CF_2003_Main.html
Bow Down To Entropy College Football Ratings
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/index.html
Bassett Football Model
http://members.cox.net/gbassett/football/
NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm
TeamRankings.com
http://teamrankings.com/ncf/
Armstrong College Football Ranking System
http://home.earthlink.net/~ztarmstrong/Div1ACFB/cfbase.htm
Gupta Power Ratings for College Football
http://www.bapi.net/football/college.rat.html
College Football Performance Ratings
http://homepages.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/
_________________________________________
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports
Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the
property
of Ray Waits and
David Wilson.
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:
http://www.nutshellsports.com/
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
_________________________________________
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.
Sports pages you just can't miss:
David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://www.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/rate/index.html
Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://www.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/
Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm
NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/
Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
