NCAA 2004 Football Superlist

Sports Rating Pages 
  I sum it all up in a nutshell.  

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) Different systems consider different factors in different proportions. It's my opinion that a Superlist can be made which combines systems of different theories into a very accurate rating system. I had used fifteen systems in the past but have decided that the outcome is too similar to all ratings combined - for example, Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page. Last year I cut the number from ten to nine. This seasons's Superlist will be composed of the five "heavies," the two most retrodictive (according to Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison Page), and the two highest-rated systems against the point-spread (according to Todd Beck's College Football Prediction Tracker). One important feature of all nine systems is that they have to be classified as "advanced" systems by David Wilson.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. He also increased the Superlist this season to include all the 1-A teams. Once in a while he makes a new suggestion and hasn't had a bad idea yet. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea.

This season's contributors will be:

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Tuesday, January 4, 2005 (9 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 USC             100.000    1.000    1.0     9     9    9    9
   2 Auburn           98.778    2.444    2.0     9     9    9    0
   3 Oklahoma         97.944    3.111    3.0     9     9    9    0
   4 Utah             96.000    5.000    5.0     9     9    6    0
   5 Texas            95.500    6.000    5.0     9     8    5    0
   6 California       94.556    6.889    6.0     9     7    4    0
   7 Louisville       94.389    7.222    6.0     9     8    2    0
   8 Miami FL         92.667    8.667    8.0     9     7    0    0
   9 Virginia Tech    91.889    9.222    9.0     9     7    0    0
  10 Georgia          91.333    9.333   10.0     9     7    1    0
  11 Iowa             89.778   11.444   11.0     9     3    0    0
  12 Boise St         89.167   11.667   12.0     9     3    0    0
  13 Arizona St       87.889   13.222   13.0     9     2    0    0
  14 Florida St       86.056   14.889   15.0     9     0    0    0
  15 Tennessee        86.056   14.889   15.0     9     2    0    0
  16 LSU              85.278   15.444   16.0     9     0    0    0
  17 Texas Tech       83.056   17.889   18.0     9     0    0    0
  18 Michigan         82.278   18.444   19.0     9     0    0    0
  19 Texas A&M        80.778   20.444   20.0     8     0    0    0
  20 Oregon St        80.444   21.111   20.0     9     0    0    0
  21 Virginia         80.333   20.333   21.0     9     0    0    0
  22 Wisconsin        79.056   21.889   22.0     9     0    0    0
  23 Ohio St          79.000   22.000   22.0     9     0    0    0
  24 Purdue           75.667   25.667   25.0     7     0    0    0
  25 Oklahoma St      74.500   27.000   26.0     7     0    0    0
  26 Fresno St        74.000   27.000   27.0     7     0    0    0
  27 Boston College   73.778   27.444   27.0     6     0    0    0
  28 Florida          72.167   28.667   29.0     6     0    0    0
  29 Georgia Tech     70.278   31.444   30.0     5     0    0    0
  30 Colorado         68.222   32.556   33.0     4     0    0    0
  31 Notre Dame       68.000   33.000   33.0     3     0    0    0
  32 North Carolina   67.389   35.222   32.0     3     0    0    0
  33 West Virginia    66.833   34.333   34.0     2     0    0    0
  34 Clemson          64.500   37.000   36.0     0     0    0    0
  35 UCLA             64.278   38.444   35.0     4     0    0    0
  36 Navy             62.833   39.333   37.0     2     0    0    0
  37 Pittsburgh       62.444   38.111   39.0     1     0    0    0
  38 New Mexico       61.444   39.111   40.0     0     0    0    0
  39 Texas-El Paso    61.167   40.667   39.0     1     0    0    0
  40 Minnesota        60.889   39.222   41.0     1     0    0    0
  41 Bowling Green    60.667   40.667   40.0     3     0    0    0
  42 Arkansas         58.889   41.222   43.0     1     0    0    0
  43 Iowa St          55.167   47.667   44.0     0     0    0    0
  44 NC State         54.667   45.667   47.0     0     0    0    0
  45 South Carolina   54.056   47.889   46.0     0     0    0    0
  46 Connecticut      52.944   49.111   47.0     0     0    0    0
  47 Northwestern     51.333   49.333   50.0     0     0    0    0
  48 Alabama          49.389   51.222   52.0     1     0    0    0
  49 Brigham Young    48.889   50.222   54.0     0     0    0    0
  50 Stanford         48.778   52.444   52.0     0     0    0    0
  51 Kansas           48.389   54.222   51.0     0     0    0    0
  52 Cincinnati       47.778   51.444   55.0     0     0    0    0
  53 Washington St    47.500   54.000   53.0     0     0    0    0
  54 N Illinois       47.444   54.111   53.0     0     0    0    0
  55 Memphis          47.167   53.667   54.0     0     0    0    0
  56 Oregon           45.389   54.222   57.0     0     0    0    0
  57 Wyoming          44.833   56.333   56.0     0     0    0    0
  58 Syracuse         44.222   55.556   58.0     0     0    0    0
  59 Southern Miss    43.944   57.111   57.0     0     0    0    0
  60 Maryland         43.500   57.000   58.0     0     0    0    0
  61 Louisiana Tech   40.556   60.889   60.0     0     0    0    0
  62 Nebraska         39.500   62.000   61.0     0     0    0    0
  63 Michigan St      38.944   62.111   62.0     0     0    0    0
  64 Hawaii           38.556   62.889   62.0     0     0    0    0
  65 Kansas St        37.444   63.111   64.0     0     0    0    0
  66 Toledo           37.000   62.000   66.0     0     0    0    0
  67 UAB              36.056   63.889   66.0     0     0    0    0
  68 Missouri         35.000   65.000   67.0     0     0    0    0
  69 Troy             33.833   66.333   68.0     0     0    0    0
  70 Air Force        32.222   67.556   70.0     0     0    0    0
  71 Miami OH         30.833   70.333   70.0     0     0    0    0
  72 Wake Forest      30.167   69.667   72.0     0     0    0    0
  73 Penn St          30.000   68.000   74.0     0     0    0    0
  74 Arizona          27.889   73.222   73.0     0     0    0    0
  75 Mississippi      27.778   73.444   73.0     0     0    0    0
  76 TCU              26.889   74.222   74.0     0     0    0    0
  77 Colorado St      26.556   72.889   76.0     0     0    0    0
  78 Marshall         24.889   78.222   74.0     0     0    0    0
  79 San Diego St     23.278   77.444   78.0     0     0    0    0
  80 North Texas      22.667   78.667   78.0     0     0    0    0
  81 Rutgers          20.444   81.111   80.0     0     0    0    0
  82 New Mexico St    16.944   86.111   82.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Baylor           16.389   84.222   85.0     0     0    0    0
  84 Tulane           15.222   85.556   86.0     0     0    0    0
  85 Indiana          13.722   86.556   88.0     0     0    0    0
  86 Duke             13.667   87.667   87.0     0     0    0    0
  87 South Florida    13.389   88.222   87.0     0     0    0    0
  88 Houston          13.333   88.333   87.0     0     0    0    0
  89 Mississippi St   12.389   90.222   87.0     0     0    0    0
  90 Tulsa            10.889   91.222   89.0     0     0    0    0
  91 Middle Tenn St    9.389   91.222   92.0     0     0    0    0
  92 Illinois          9.167   91.667   92.0     0     0    0    0
  93 Kent              6.611   95.778   93.0     0     0    0    0
  94 Rice              6.222   95.556   94.0     0     0    0    0
  95 Akron             5.611   91.778   99.0     0     0    0    0
  96 UNLV              4.222   96.556   97.0     0     0    0    0
  97 LA Monroe         4.167   95.667   98.0     0     0    0    0
  98 Vanderbilt        4.000   96.000   98.0     0     0    0    0
  99 Temple            2.778   98.444   98.0     0     0    0    0
 100 Nevada            2.333   98.333   99.0     0     0    0    0
 101 SMU               1.222  100.556   99.0     0     0    0    0
 102 Kentucky          1.000  100.000  100.0     0     0    0    0
 103 Washington       -0.056  100.111  102.0     0     0    0    0
 104 Ohio             -1.389  103.778  101.0     0     0    0    0
 105 LA Lafayette     -1.389  102.778  102.0     0     0    0    0
 106 Army             -1.611  103.222  102.0     0     0    0    0
 107 Utah St          -3.389  104.778  104.0     0     0    0    0
 108 Arkansas St      -3.444  104.889  104.0     0     0    0    0
 109 East Carolina    -5.611  106.222  107.0     0     0    0    0
 110 E Michigan       -8.167  109.333  109.0     0     0    0    0
 111 Idaho            -8.722  110.444  109.0     0     0    0    0
 112 San Jose St      -9.444  110.889  110.0     0     0    0    0
 113 C Michigan      -10.167  110.333  112.0     0     0    0    0
 114 Ball St         -12.556  113.111  114.0     0     0    0    0
 115 Buffalo         -14.056  115.111  115.0     0     0    0    0
 116 W Michigan      -14.722  115.444  116.0     0     0    0    0
 117 UCF             -15.722  116.444  117.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings
http://www.geocities.com/kambour/football.html

Sorenson Sports Rankings
http://www.phys.utk.edu/sorensen/cfr/cfr/output/2003/CF_2003_Main.html

Bow Down To Entropy College Football Ratings
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/index.html

Bassett Football Model
http://members.cox.net/gbassett/football/

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

TeamRankings.com
http://teamrankings.com/ncf/

Armstrong College Football Ranking System
http://home.earthlink.net/~ztarmstrong/Div1ACFB/cfbase.htm

Gupta Power Ratings for College Football
http://www.bapi.net/football/college.rat.html

College Football Performance Ratings
http://homepages.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://www.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/rate/index.html

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://www.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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