NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me.

Go to the Blog

Sports Rating Pages 
  I sum it all up in a nutshell.  

Home ] [ Predictive NCAA Football Ratings ] [ Retrodictive NCAA Football Ratings ] [ Predictive NFL Ratings ] [ Retrodictive NFL Ratings ] [ Classic YourLinx NFL Ratings ] [ NBA Ratings ] [ NCAA Football Superlist ] [ NCAA Basketball Superlist ]

Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Retrodictives

Jay Coleman's and Jeff Sagarin's systems are a couple of the very most retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.

The Predictives

Edward Kambour's and Ray Waits's systems are a couple of the most predictive, meaning they best predicted which of any two teams would emerge victorious.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. He also increased the Superlist last season to include all the 1-A teams. Once in a while he even makes a suggestion. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me).

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Thursday, January 7, 2010 (9 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Alabama          99.944    1.111    1.0     9     9    9    8
   2 Florida          98.722    2.556    2.0     9     9    9    0
   3 Texas            97.833    3.333    3.0     9     9    9    0
   4 Boise St         97.111    4.778    3.0     9     8    7    1
   5 TCU              96.056    4.889    5.0     9     9    7    0
   6 Ohio St          93.444    7.111    8.0     9     9    1    0
   7 Cincinnati       92.333   10.333    7.0     9     7    1    0
   8 Virginia Tech    91.556    9.889    9.0     9     5    1    0
   9 Iowa             90.944   11.111    9.0     9     6    0    0
  10 Penn St          90.778   10.444   10.0     9     6    0    0
  11 Oregon           90.167   10.667   11.0     9     3    0    0
  12 LSU              88.111   12.778   13.0     9     1    0    0
  13 Georgia Tech     87.833   13.333   13.0     9     1    0    0
  14 BYU              85.444   16.111   15.0     8     3    0    0
  15 Pittsburgh       84.611   16.778   16.0     9     0    0    0
  16 Arkansas         84.056   16.889   17.0     8     1    0    0
  17 Mississippi      81.389   21.222   18.0     8     0    0    0
  18 Nebraska         80.611   18.778   22.0     9     1    0    0
  19 USC              79.611   22.778   20.0     8     0    0    0
  20 Oklahoma         78.556   21.889   23.0     8     1    1    0
  21 Georgia          78.444   22.111   23.0     9     0    0    0
  22 Miami FL         78.222   22.556   23.0     9     0    0    0
  23 Clemson          77.389   24.222   23.0     9     0    0    0
  24 Wisconsin        76.611   24.778   24.0     7     0    0    0
  25 Auburn           75.778   26.444   24.0     7     0    0    0
  26 Utah             75.722   25.556   25.0     6     0    0    0
  27 Texas Tech       73.667   25.667   29.0     6     1    0    0
  28 West Virginia    72.111   28.778   29.0     6     0    0    0
  29 Connecticut      70.556   29.889   31.0     4     0    0    0
  30 Oregon St        70.444   31.111   30.0     5     0    0    0
  31 Florida St       69.667   32.667   30.0     5     0    0    0
  32 North Carolina   68.833   31.333   33.0     3     0    0    0
  33 Arizona          68.833   33.333   31.0     0     0    0    0
  34 Oklahoma St      68.778   32.444   32.0     3     0    0    0
  35 Stanford         65.722   33.556   37.0     3     1    0    0
  36 Rutgers          65.667   34.667   36.0     1     0    0    0
  37 Tennessee        64.944   36.111   36.0     2     0    0    0
  38 C Michigan       64.889   37.222   35.0     2     0    0    0
  39 Navy             61.333   40.333   39.0     0     0    0    0
  40 South Carolina   61.333   39.333   40.0     1     0    0    0
  41 Air Force        59.500   42.000   41.0     1     0    0    0
  42 California       58.778   43.444   41.0     0     0    0    0
  43 South Florida    57.833   44.333   42.0     0     0    0    0
  44 Mississippi St   57.278   43.444   44.0     1     0    0    0
  45 Kentucky         57.222   44.556   43.0     1     0    0    0
  46 East Carolina    56.611   43.778   45.0     1     0    0    0
  47 Boston College   56.556   43.889   45.0     0     0    0    0
  48 UCLA             54.889   47.222   45.0     0     0    0    0
  49 Houston          52.278   47.444   50.0     1     0    0    0
  50 Notre Dame       50.944   50.111   50.0     0     0    0    0
  51 Missouri         50.722   49.556   51.0     1     0    0    0
  52 Washington       45.889   54.222   56.0     0     0    0    0
  53 Michigan St      44.667   55.667   57.0     0     0    0    0
  54 Northwestern     44.556   57.889   55.0     0     0    0    0
  55 Texas A&M        42.056   58.889   59.0     0     0    0    0
  56 Middle Tenn St   41.833   60.333   58.0     0     0    0    0
  57 Fresno St        41.111   60.778   59.0     0     0    0    0
  58 Minnesota        41.111   59.778   60.0     0     0    0    0
  59 Wake Forest      41.111   59.778   60.0     0     0    0    0
  60 UCF              40.944   58.111   62.0     1     0    0    0
  61 Iowa St          40.389   60.222   61.0     0     0    0    0
  62 Nevada           38.278   62.444   63.0     0     0    0    0
  63 Troy             36.444   65.111   64.0     0     0    0    0
  64 SMU              35.389   64.222   67.0     0     0    0    0
  65 Temple           34.000   67.000   67.0     0     0    0    0
  66 Kansas St        33.778   66.444   68.0     0     0    0    0
  67 Arizona St       32.389   67.222   70.0     0     0    0    0
  68 Wyoming          31.889   67.222   71.0     0     0    0    0
  69 Kansas           31.333   67.333   72.0     0     0    0    0
  70 Purdue           31.000   71.000   69.0     0     0    0    0
  71 NC State         29.778   72.444   70.0     0     0    0    0
  72 Baylor           29.667   71.667   71.0     0     0    0    0
  73 Marshall         29.222   72.556   71.0     0     0    0    0
  74 Southern Miss    27.722   73.556   73.0     0     0    0    0
  75 Idaho            26.611   74.778   74.0     0     0    0    0
  76 Ohio             26.056   72.889   77.0     0     0    0    0
  77 Duke             25.444   74.111   77.0     0     0    0    0
  78 Bowling Green    23.778   78.444   76.0     0     0    0    0
  79 Syracuse         23.444   77.111   78.0     0     0    0    0
  80 Louisville       23.278   78.444   77.0     0     0    0    0
  81 Virginia         21.833   78.333   80.0     0     0    0    0
  82 Michigan         21.611   79.778   79.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Colorado         18.333   80.333   85.0     0     0    0    0
  84 UNLV             16.333   84.333   85.0     0     0    0    0
  85 Louisiana Tech   15.500   83.000   88.0     0     0    0    0
  86 UAB              15.444   86.111   85.0     0     0    0    0
  87 N Illinois       15.389   85.222   86.0     0     0    0    0
  88 Illinois         14.389   86.222   87.0     0     0    0    0
  89 Indiana          13.056   86.889   89.0     0     0    0    0
  90 Hawaii           12.333   88.333   89.0     0     0    0    0
  91 Utah St          10.778   89.444   91.0     0     0    0    0
  92 Maryland         10.056   90.889   91.0     0     0    0    0
  93 Tulsa             9.500   90.000   93.0     0     0    0    0
  94 San Diego St      7.611   92.778   94.0     0     0    0    0
  95 Vanderbilt        7.556   91.889   95.0     0     0    0    0
  96 Buffalo           6.611   93.778   95.0     0     0    0    0
  97 ULM               4.000   96.000   98.0     0     0    0    0
  98 FL Atlantic       2.278   98.444   99.0     0     0    0    0
  99 Colorado St       1.889  100.222   98.0     0     0    0    0
 100 UTEP              0.389  101.222  100.0     0     0    0    0
 101 Kent             -0.333  101.667  101.0     0     0    0    0
 102 ULL              -0.611  101.222  102.0     0     0    0    0
 103 Toledo           -2.556  103.111  104.0     0     0    0    0
 104 Army             -2.944  102.889  105.0     0     0    0    0
 105 W Michigan       -3.833  104.667  105.0     0     0    0    0
 106 Memphis          -6.389  106.778  108.0     0     0    0    0
 107 Tulane           -7.444  108.889  108.0     0     0    0    0
 108 Arkansas St      -7.667  108.333  109.0     0     0    0    0
 109 Akron           -10.000  110.000  112.0     0     0    0    0
 110 Rice            -10.056  111.111  111.0     0     0    0    0
 111 Florida Intl    -10.389  110.778  112.0     0     0    0    0
 112 Washington St   -10.444  108.889  114.0     0     0    0    0
 113 San Jose St     -10.722  111.444  112.0     0     0    0    0
 114 New Mexico      -11.556  112.111  113.0     0     0    0    0
 115 Ball St         -13.111  112.222  116.0     0     0    0    0
 116 New Mexico St   -13.111  113.222  115.0     0     0    0    0
 117 Miami OH        -13.500  113.000  116.0     0     0    0    0
 118 North Texas     -15.500  115.000  118.0     0     0    0    0
 119 E Michigan      -18.056  119.111  119.0     0     0    0    0
 120 W Kentucky      -18.556  119.111  120.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

Jeff Sagarin's ELO Ratings
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt09.htm

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings
http://www.kambour.net/football.html

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

Nutshell Sports
http://www.nutshellsports.com/ncaafb.html

David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://homepages.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/byrate.html

2009 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://www.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/rate/index.html

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://www.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

Copyright 1998-2005 Nutshellsports.com

Webmaster: ray@ebarrelracing.com